ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2021
Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- On real-time calibrated prediction for complex model-based decision support in pandemics: Part 2.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- The impact of shielding on COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths during 2020 in England: a transmission modelling evaluation using the OpenSAFELY platform.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Exploring the cause of the pertussis resurgence in England following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Modelling the potential use of pre-exposure prophylaxis to reduce nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 transmission.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- EpiGeoPop: a tool for developing spatially accurate country-level epidemiological models.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A retrospective assessment of forecasting the peak of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 wave in England.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Epidemiological inference at the threshold of data availability: an influenza A(H1N2)v spillover event in the United Kingdom.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Inferring community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom using the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Impact of interventions to reduce nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in English NHS Trusts: a computational modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Combining models to generate consensus medium-term projections of hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths relating to COVID-19 in England.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Projecting COVID-19 intensive care admissions for policy advice, the Netherlands, February 2020 to January 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Understanding the impact of numerical solvers on inference for differential equation models.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Predicting subnational incidence of COVID-19 cases and deaths in EU countries.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- The effectiveness and efficiency of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies for patient and healthcare workers within acute NHS hospitals during an omicron-like period.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- A follow up report validating long term predictions of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK using a dynamic causal model.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Evaluating pooled testing for asymptomatic screening of healthcare workers in hospitals.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Understanding the leading indicators of hospital admissions from COVID-19 across successive waves in the UK.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Neural network models for influenza forecasting with associated uncertainty using Web search activity trends.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Pediatric Hospitalizations and ICU Admissions Due to COVID-19 and Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome Temporally Associated With SARS-CoV-2 in England.JAMA pediatrics · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe 'lockdown' mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic management throughout the first wave. Estimates on the 10 May showed lockdown had reduced transmission by 75%, the reproduction number falling from 2.6 to 0.61. This regionally varying impact was largest in London with a reduction of 81% (95% credible interval: 77-84%). Reproduction numbers have since then slowly increased, and on 19 June the probability of the epidemic growing was greater than 5% in two regions, South West and London. By this date, an estimated 8% of the population had been infected, with a higher proportion in London (17%). The infection-to-fatality ratio is 1.1% (0.9-1.4%) overall but 17% (14-22%) among the over-75s. This ongoing work continues to be key to quantifying any widespread resurgence, should accrued immunity and effective contact tracing be insufficient to preclude a second wave. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
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