ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2021
Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
39 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2024Pooled it
- Predictions, Uncertainty, and Collective Epistemic Work: How Projected Futures Informed and Misinformed Enactments of Covid-19.Social studies of science · 2026Article
- Capturing SARS-CoV-2 immune landscapes to inform future strategies for COVID-19 vaccination in a high-income setting: a mathematical modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- How understanding the diversity of perspectives and systems in governments can increase the impact of scientific research.Communications health · 2026Review
- Calibration of transmission-dynamic infectious disease models: A scoping review and reporting framework.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Modelling practices, data provisioning, sharing and dissemination needs for pandemic decision-making: a European survey-based modellers' perspective, 2020 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Dynamics of an epidemic controlled by isolation and quarantine: A probability-based deterministic model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- EpiGeoPop: a tool for developing spatially accurate country-level epidemiological models.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Incorporating Epidemiological Data into the Genomic Analysis of Partially Sampled Infectious Disease Outbreaks.Molecular biology and evolution · 2025Article
- Competing societal objectives in epidemic mitigation: a modeling study of COVID-19 in the Philippines.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Review
- Canada's provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling efforts: A review of mathematical models and their impacts on the responses.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2024Review
- When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Real-time forecasting of COVID-19-related hospital strain in France using a non-Markovian mechanistic model.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic.Wellcome open research · 2024Article
- Outdoor social distancing behaviors changed during a pandemic: A longitudinal analysis using street view imagery.PloS one · 2024Article
- Public awareness of and opinions on the use of mathematical transmission modelling to inform public health policy in the United Kingdom.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Comparing intervention measures in a model of a disease outbreak on a university campus.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Heterogeneity is a key factor describing the initial outbreak of COVID-19.Applied mathematical modelling · 2023Article
- Effectiveness assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions: lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic.The Lancet. Public health · 2023Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Infectious disease modelling has played an integral part of the scientific evidence used to guide the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the UK, modelling evidence used for policy is reported to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) modelling subgroup, SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling-Operational). This Special Issue contains 20 articles detailing evidence that underpinned advice to the UK government during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the UK between January 2020 and July 2020. Here, we introduce the UK scientific advisory system and how it operates in practice, and discuss how infectious disease modelling can be useful in policy making. We examine the drawbacks of current publishing practices and academic credit and highlight the importance of transparency and reproducibility during an epidemic emergency. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.