ArticleScientific reports2021
Retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from deaths (REMEDID) in COVID-19: the Spain case study.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections by jointly modelling seroprevalence, hospitalization and mortality data, February 2020 - January 2021, Belgium.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Retrospective estimate of COVID-19 infections in nine Colombian cities in 2020.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- The Inverted U-Shaped Relationship Between Socio-Economic Status and Infections During the COVID-19 Pandemic.GeoHealth · 2024Article
- Estimating population infection rates from non-random testing data: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic.PloS one · 2024Article
- Application of distributed lag models and spatial analysis for comparing the performance of the COVID-19 control decisions in European countries.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Disentangling the role of virus infectiousness and awareness-based human behavior during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the European Union.Applied mathematical modelling · 2023Article
- Article
- Women's body dissatisfaction, physical appearance comparisons, and Instagram use throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A longitudinal study.The International journal of eating disorders · 2023Article
- Digital cities and the spread of COVID-19: Characterizing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in five cities in Spain.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- The impact of air travel on the precocity and severity of COVID-19 deaths in sub-national areas across 45 countries.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Public Interest and Accessibility of Telehealth in Japan: Retrospective Analysis Using Google Trends and National Surveillance.JMIR formative research · 2022Article
- Identification of the first COVID-19 infections in the US using a retrospective analysis (REMEDID).Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2022Article
- Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis.Lancet (London, England) · 2022Article
- Dynamical regulations on mobility and vaccinations for controlling COVID-19 spread.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Caveats on COVID-19 herd immunity threshold: the Spain case.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- COVID-19 dynamics in Madrid (Spain): A new convolutional model to find out the missing information during the first three waves.PloS one · 2022Article
- Article
- How do the smart travel ban policy and intercity travel pattern affect COVID-19 trends? Lessons learned from Iran.PloS one · 2022Article
- Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2021Article
- Identification of the first COVID-19 infections in the US using a retrospective analysis.Research square · 2021Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
The number of new daily infections is one of the main parameters to understand the dynamics of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, such information has been underestimated. Here, we propose a retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from daily deaths, because those are usually more accurately documented. Given the incubation period, the time from illness onset to death, and the case fatality ratio, the date of death can be estimated from the date of infection. We apply this idea conversely to estimate infections from deaths. This methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable daily infections during the first wave were between 35 and 42 times more than those officially documented on 14 March, when the national government decreed a national lockdown and 9 times more than those documented by the updated version of the official data. The national lockdown had a strong effect on the growth rate of virus transmission, which began to decrease immediately. Finally, the first inferred infection in Spain is about 43 days before the official data were available during the first wave. The current official data show delays of 15-30 days in the first infection relative to the inferred infections in 63% of the regions. In summary, we propose a methodology that allows reinterpretation of official daily infections, improving data accuracy in infection magnitude and dates because it assimilates valuable information from the National Seroprevalence Studies.
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