Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34049885›Full record

ArticleScience advances2021

Improved estimates of preindustrial biomass burning reduce the magnitude of aerosol climate forcing in the Southern Hemisphere.

Pengfei Liu, Jed O Kaplan, Loretta J Mickley, Yang Li, Nathan J Chellman, Monica M Arienzo, John K Kodros, Jeffrey R Pierce, Michael Sigl, Johannes Freitag and 3 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
4.7field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 48 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Atmospheric HNature · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Historical Southern Hemisphere biomass burning variability inferred from ice core carbon monoxide records.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 10 institutions in 6 countries.

Pengfei LiuSchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA. pengfei.liu@eas.gatech.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-7280-9720
Jed O KaplanDepartment of Earth Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.ORCID 0000-0001-9919-7613
Loretta J MickleySchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7859-3470
Yang LiSchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1972-7472
Nathan J ChellmanDivision of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512, USA.
Monica M ArienzoDivision of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512, USA.
John K KodrosDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80521, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1791-0118
Jeffrey R PierceDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4241-838X
Michael SiglOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-9028-9703
Johannes FreitagAlfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-2654-9440
Robert MulvaneyBritish Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5372-8148
Mark A J CurranAustralian Antarctic Division and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Joseph R McConnellDivision of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512, USA.
Colorado State University · USDesert Research Institute · USHarvard University · USAlfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung · DEAustralian Antarctic Division · AUBritish Antarctic Survey · GBGeorgia Institute of Technology · USUniversity of Bern · CHUniversity of Cambridge · GBUniversity of Hong Kong · HK

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Fire plays a pivotal role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems and the chemical composition of the atmosphere and thus influences Earth's climate. The trend and magnitude of fire activity over the past few centuries are controversial, which hinders understanding of preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative forcing. Here, we present evidence from records of 14 Antarctic ice cores and 1 central Andean ice core, suggesting that historical fire activity in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) exceeded present-day levels. To understand this observation, we use a global fire model to show that overall SH fire emissions could have declined by 30% over the 20th century, possibly because of the rapid expansion of land use for agriculture and animal production in middle to high latitudes. Radiative forcing calculations suggest that the decreasing trend in SH fire emissions over the past century largely compensates for the cooling effect of increasing aerosols from fossil fuel and biofuel sources.

Identifiers

PMID34049885
PMCPMC8163089
OpenAlexW3165385218

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.