Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34045359›Full record

ArticleLupus science & medicine2021

Assessment of cardiovascular risk tools as predictors of cardiovascular disease events in systemic lupus erythematosus.

Jagan Sivakumaran, Paula Harvey, Ahmed Omar, Oshrat Tayer-Shifman, Murray B Urowitz, Dafna D Gladman, Nicole Anderson, Jiandong Su, Zahi Touma

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Lupus science & medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
4.3field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.

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  10. Vascular damage in systemic lupus erythematosus.Nature reviews. Nephrology · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Jagan SivakumaranUniversity of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Paula HarveyWomen's College Research Institute, Women's College Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Ahmed OmarUniversity of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Oshrat Tayer-ShifmanDepartment of Internal Medicine B and Rheumatology Service, Meir Medical Center, Kfar Saba, Israel.
Murray B UrowitzMedicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-7506-9166
Dafna D GladmanUniversity of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Nicole AndersonCentre for Prognosis Studies in the Rheumatic Diseases, Toronto Western Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Jiandong SuToronto Western Hospital Centre for Prognosis Studies in the Rheumatic Diseases, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Zahi ToumaUniversity of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Zahi.Touma@uhn.ca.ORCID 0000-0001-5177-2076
University of Toronto · CAMeir Medical Center · ILToronto Western Hospital · CAUniversity Health Network · CAWomen's College Hospital · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSLE is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to determine which among QRISK2, QRISK3, Framingham Risk Score (FRS), modified Framingham Risk Score (mFRS) and SLE Cardiovascular Risk Equation (SLECRE) best predicts CVD.

methodsThis is a single-centre analysis on 1887 patients with SLE followed prospectively according to a standard protocol. Tools' scores were evaluated against CVD development at/within 10 years for patients with CVD and without CVD. For patients with CVD, the index date for risk score calculation was chosen as close to 10 years prior to CVD event. For patients without CVD, risk scores were calculated as close to 10 years prior to the most recent clinic appointment. Proportions of low-risk (<10%), intermediate-risk (10%-20%) and high-risk (>20%) patients for developing CVD according to each tool were determined, allowing sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive value and concordance (c) statistics analysis.

resultsAmong 1887 patients, 232 CVD events occurred. QRISK2 and FRS, and QRISK3 and mFRS, performed similarly. SLECRE classified the highest number of patients as intermediate and high risk. Sensitivities and specificities were 19% and 93% for QRISK2, 22% and 93% for FRS, 46% and 83% for mFRS, 47% and 78% for QRISK3, and 61% and 64% for SLECRE. Tools were similar in negative predictive value, ranging from 89% (QRISK2) to 92% (SLECRE). FRS and mFRS had the greatest c-statistics (0.73), while QRISK3 and SLECRE had the lowest (0. 67).

conclusionmFRS was superior to FRS and was not outperformed by the QRISK tools. SLECRE had the highest sensitivity but the lowest specificity. mFRS is an SLE-adjusted practical tool with a simple, intuitive scoring system reasonably appropriate for ambulatory settings, with more research needed to develop more accurate CVD risk prediction tools in this population.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesLupus Erythematosus, SystemicAdultDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2FemaleHeart Disease Risk FactorsHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsYoung Adultcardiovascular diseasesinflammationlupus erythematosussystemic

Identifiers

PMID34045359
PMCPMC8162102
OpenAlexW3164908522

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.