SynthesisInteractive cardiovascular and thoracic surgery2021
Systematic review and meta-analysis of mortality risk prediction models in adult cardiac surgery.
Synthesis in Interactive cardiovascular and thoracic surgery, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 25 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pre- and Immediate Postoperative Prediction Model for Organ Dysfunction or Death Early After Cardiac Surgery: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Multicenter Randomized Trial.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2026Trial
- Effect of early administration of tetracosactide on mortality and host response in critically ill patients requiring rescue surgery: a sensitivity analysis of the STOPSHOCK phase 3 randomized controlled trial.Military Medical Research · 2024Trial
- Risk Stratification in Cardiovascular Medicine for Prognostic Assessment and Therapeutic Decision-Making: From Atrial Fibrillation to the Broader Disease Spectrum.Journal of arrhythmia · 2026Review
- Short- and Long-Term Survival Prediction Using Different Prognostic Scores in Cardiovascular Surgeries.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Long-Term Survival After Mitral Valve Replacement by Preoperative Risk: Implications for Patient Selection.The Annals of thoracic surgery · 2026Article
- Association between hemoglobin-to-red cell distribution width ratio and 30-day mortality after cardiac surgery.Journal of thoracic disease · 2025Article
- Development of a coordinated interhospital transfer program for cardiac surgery patients.Journal of cardiothoracic surgery · 2025Article
- Application of the comprehensive complication index and Clavien-Dindo complication classification in cardiac surgery: a retrospective study.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2025Article
- Performance of the EuroSCORE in coronary artery bypass graft in Colombia, a middle-income country: A retrospective cohort.World journal of cardiology · 2025Article
- Gastric reactance as a marker for major perioperative complications in high-risk cardiac surgery patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass.Frontiers in medical technology · 2025Article
- Comparison of machine learning techniques in prediction of mortality following cardiac surgery: analysis of over 220 000 patients from a large national database.European journal of cardio-thoracic surgery : official journal of the European Association for Cardio-thoracic Surgery · 2023Article
- Periprocedural adverse events after revascularisation: the importance of getting off to a good start.EuroIntervention : journal of EuroPCR in collaboration with the Working Group on Interventional Cardiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2023Article
- The performance of EuroSCORE II in CABG patients in relation to sex, age, and surgical risk: a nationwide study in 14,118 patients.Journal of cardiothoracic surgery · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesThe most used mortality risk prediction models in cardiac surgery are the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (ES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score. There is no agreement on which score should be considered more accurate nor which score should be utilized in each population subgroup. We sought to provide a thorough quantitative assessment of these 2 models.
methodsWe performed a systematic literature review and captured information on discrimination, as quantified by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and calibration, as quantified by the ratio of observed-to-expected mortality (O:E). We performed random effects meta-analysis of the performance of the individual models as well as pairwise comparisons and subgroup analysis by procedure type, time and continent.
resultsThe ES2 {AUC 0.783 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.765-0.800]; O:E 1.102 (95% CI 0.943-1.289)} and STS [AUC 0.757 (95% CI 0.727-0.785); O:E 1.111 (95% CI 0.853-1.447)] showed good overall discrimination and calibration. There was no significant difference in the discrimination of the 2 models (difference in AUC -0.016; 95% CI -0.034 to -0.002; P = 0.09). However, the calibration of ES2 showed significant geographical variations (P < 0.001) and a trend towards miscalibration with time (P=0.057). This was not seen with STS.
conclusionsES2 and STS are reliable predictors of short-term mortality following adult cardiac surgery in the populations from which they were derived. STS may have broader applications when comparing outcomes across continents as compared to ES2. REGISTRATION: Prospero (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/) CRD42020220983.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.