Cost-Effectiveness of Improved Hypertension Management in India through Increased Treatment Coverage and Adherence: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

Background: Despite the availability of effective and affordable treatments, only 14% of hypertensive Indians have controlled blood pressure. Increased hypertension treatment coverage (the proportion of individuals initiated on treatment) and adherence (proportion of patients taking medicines as recommended) promise population health gains. However, governments and other payers will not invest in a large-scale hypertension control program unless it is both affordable and effective. Objective: To investigate if a national hypertension control intervention implemented across the private and public sector facilities in India could save overall costs of CVD prevention and treatment. Methods: We developed a discrete-time microsimulation model to assess the cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension control intervention in India for combinations of treatment coverage and adherence targets. Input clinical parameters specific to India were obtained from large-scale surveys such as the Global Burden of Disease as well as local clinical trials. Input hypertensive medication cost parameters were based on government contracts. The model projected antihypertensive treatment costs, avoided CVD care costs, changes in disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) and incremental cost per DALY averted (represented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or ICER) over 20 years. Results: Over 20 years, at 70% coverage and adherence, the hypertension control intervention would avert 1.68% DALYs and be cost-saving overall. Increasing adherence (while keeping coverage constant) resulted in greater improvement in cost savings compared to increasing coverage (while keeping adherence constant). Results were most sensitive to the cost of antihypertensive medication, but the intervention remained highly cost-effective under all one-way sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: A national hypertension control intervention in India would most likely be budget neutral or cost-saving if the intervention can achieve and maintain high levels of both treatment coverage and adherence.