Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34039579›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2021

Changes in daily mental health service use and mortality at the commencement and lifting of COVID-19 'lockdown' policy in 10 UK sites: a regression discontinuity in time design.

Ioannis Bakolis, Robert Stewart, David Baldwin, Jane Beenstock, Paul Bibby, Matthew Broadbent, Rudolf Cardinal, Shanquan Chen, Karthik Chinnasamy, Andrea Cipriani and 16 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Utilization of mental health services during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic - a systematic review and meta-analysis.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2026
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  11. OpenSAFELY NHS Service Restoration Observatory 2: changes in primary care clinical activity in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2023
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  16. What happened to the predicted COVID-19-induced suicide epidemic, and why?The Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

26 authors.

Ioannis Bakolis *Department of Biostatistics and Health Informatics, King's College London Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, London, UK.
Robert Stewart *South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK r.stewart@iop.kcl.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-4435-6397
David BaldwinSouthern Health NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK.
Jane BeenstockLancashire and South Cumbria NHS Foundation Trust, Preston, UK.
Paul BibbyLancashire and South Cumbria NHS Foundation Trust, Preston, UK.
Matthew BroadbentSouth London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Rudolf CardinalDepartment of Psychiatry, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8751-5167
Shanquan ChenDepartment of Psychiatry, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, UK.
Karthik ChinnasamyCamden and Islington NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Andrea CiprianiDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Oxford Medical Sciences Division, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5179-8321
Simon DouglasCumbria, Northumberland, Tyne and Wear NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Philip HornerLancashire and South Cumbria NHS Foundation Trust, Preston, UK.
Caroline A JacksonUsher Institute of Population Health Sciences & Informatics, University of Edinburgh Division of Medical and Radiological Sciences, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2067-2811
Ann JohnPopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5657-6995
Dan W JoyceDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Sze Chim LeePopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK.
Jonathan LewisCambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust, Fulbourn, Cambridgeshire, UK.
Andrew McIntoshDivision of Psychiatry, University of Edinburgh Division of Medical and Radiological Sciences, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0198-4588
Neil NixonDivision of Psychiatry and Applied Psychology, University of Nottingham Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Nottingham, UK.
David OsbornDivision of Psychiatry, University College London Faculty of Medical Sciences, London, UK.
Peter PhiriSouthern Health NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK.
Shanaya RathodSouthern Health NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK.
Tanya SmithOxford Health NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK.
Rachel SokalNottinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, Nottingham, UK.
Rob WallerLothian Primary Care NHS Trust, Edinburgh, UK.
Sabine LandauDepartment of Biostatistics and Health Informatics, King's College London Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, London, UK.

Funding

Department of Health RP-2017-08-ST2-006Medical Research Council MC_PC_17209Medical Research Council MC_PC_17213Medical Research Council MC_PC_17214Medical Research Council MR/V049879/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo investigate changes in daily mental health (MH) service use and mortality in response to the introduction and the lifting of the COVID-19 'lockdown' policy in Spring 2020.

designA regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) analysis of daily service-level activity. SETTING AND

participantsMental healthcare data were extracted from 10 UK providers. OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily (weekly for one site) deaths from all causes, referrals and discharges, inpatient care (admissions, discharges, caseloads) and community services (face-to-face (f2f)/non-f2f contacts, caseloads): Adult, older adult and child/adolescent mental health; early intervention in psychosis; home treatment teams and liaison/Accident and Emergency (A&E). Data were extracted from 1 Jan 2019 to 31 May 2020 for all sites, supplemented to 31 July 2020 for four sites. Changes around the commencement and lifting of COVID-19 'lockdown' policy (23 March and 10 May, respectively) were estimated using a RDiT design with a difference-in-difference approach generating incidence rate ratios (IRRs), meta-analysed across sites.

resultsPooled estimates for the lockdown transition showed increased daily deaths (IRR 2.31, 95% CI 1.86 to 2.87), reduced referrals (IRR 0.62, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.70) and reduced inpatient admissions (IRR 0.75, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.83) and caseloads (IRR 0.85, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.91) compared with the pre lockdown period. All community services saw shifts from f2f to non-f2f contacts, but varied in caseload changes. Lift of lockdown was associated with reduced deaths (IRR 0.42, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.66), increased referrals (IRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.60) and increased inpatient admissions (IRR 1.21, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.42) and caseloads (IRR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.12) compared with the lockdown period. Site-wide activity, inpatient care and community services did not return to pre lockdown levels after lift of lockdown, while number of deaths did. Between-site heterogeneity most often indicated variation in size rather than direction of effect.

conclusionsMH service delivery underwent sizeable changes during the first national lockdown, with as-yet unknown and unevaluated consequences.

Indexed as

COVID-19Mental Health ServicesAdolescentAgedChildCommunicable Disease ControlHumansPolicySARS-CoV-2United Kingdomadult psychiatryCOVID-19mental healthold age psychiatryorganisation of health services

Identifiers

PMID34039579
PMCPMC8159668

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.