Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34036522›Full record

ArticleCanadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique2021

Estimates of future cancer mortality attributable to modifiable risk factors in Canada.

Joy Pader, Yibing Ruan, Abbey E Poirier, Keiko Asakawa, Chaohui Lu, Saima Memon, Anthony Miller, Stephen Walter, Paul J Villeneuve, Will D King and 5 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.6field-weighted citation impact, top 13% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 18 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. The Impact of Adherence to Cancer Prevention Recommendations on Cancer Incidence and Mortality in a Cohort of Canadian Adults.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Revisiting Candidacy: What Might It Offer Cancer Prevention?International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Article
  7. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors at 10 institutions in 1 country.

Joy Pader *Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Care Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513C, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6022-5373
Yibing Ruan *Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Care Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513C, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada.
Abbey E PoirierDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Care Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513C, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada.
Keiko AsakawaStatistics Canada, Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Chaohui LuStatistics Canada, Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Saima MemonCanadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Anthony MillerCanadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Stephen WalterDepartment of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Paul J VilleneuveSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Will D KingDepartment of Public Health Sciences, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.
Karena D VoleskyGerald Bronfman Department of Oncology, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Leah SmithCanadian Cancer Society, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Prithwish DeCancer Care Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Christine M FriedenreichDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Care Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513C, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada.
Darren R BrennerDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Care Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513C, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada. Darren.Brenner@ucalgary.ca.
Alberta Health Services · CAStatistics Canada · CACanadian Cancer Society · CACanadian Partnership Against Cancer · CACancer Care Ontario · CACarleton University · CAImpact · CAMcGill University · CAQueen's University · CAUniversity of Toronto · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesModifiable lifestyle, environmental, and infectious risk factors associated with cancer impact both cancer incidence and mortality at the population level. Most studies estimating this burden focus on cancer incidence. However, because these risk factors are associated with cancers of disparate mortality rates, the burden associated with cancer incidence could differ from cancer mortality. Therefore, estimating the cancer mortality attributable to these risk factors provides additional insight into cancer prevention. Here, we estimated future cancer deaths and the number of avoidable deaths in Canada due to modifiable risk factors.

methodsThe projected cancer mortality data came from OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool. These data were applied to the methodological framework that we previously used to estimate the population attributable risks and the potential impact fractions of modifiable risk factors on Canadian cancer incidence.

resultsWe estimated that most cancer deaths will be attributed to tobacco smoking with an average of 27,900 deaths annually from 2024 to 2047. If Canada's current trends in excess body weight continue, cancer deaths attributable to excess body weight would double from 2786 deaths in 2024 to 5604 deaths in 2047, becoming the second leading modifiable cause of cancer death. Applying targets to reduce these risk factors, up to 34,600 cancer deaths could be prevented from 2024 to 2047.

conclusionOur simulated results complement our previous findings on the cancer incidence burden since decreasing the overall burden of cancer will be accelerated through a combination of decreasing cancer incidence and improving survival outcomes through improved treatments.

Indexed as

NeoplasmsCanadaForecastingHumansIncidenceRisk FactorsCancer mortalityCancer preventionMicrosimulationRisk factors

Identifiers

PMID34036522
PMCPMC8651921
OpenAlexW3164360879

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.