ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021
Estimating asymptomatic, undetected and total cases for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan: a mathematical modeling study.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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20 citing papers in PubMed, 55 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Mathematical models to characterize the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Mexico, USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2025Article
- Significance of supervision sampling in control of communicable respiratory disease simulated by a new model during different stages of the disease.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A six-compartment model for COVID-19 with transmission dynamics and public health strategies.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- New framework to assess tracing and testing based on South Korea's response to COVID-19.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Review
- Forecast of peak infection and estimate of excess deaths in COVID-19 transmission and prevalence in Taiyuan City, 2022 to 2023.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- A Low-Cost Early Warning Method for Infectious Diseases with Asymptomatic Carriers.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- Computational redesign of Beta-27 Fab with substantially better predicted binding affinity to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant than human ACE2 receptor.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- A multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission: Application to COVID-19 in the US.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- What is the role of aerosol transmission in SARS-Cov-2 Omicron spread in Shanghai?BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Analysis of the Geographic Transmission Differences of COVID-19 in China Caused by Population Movement and Population Density.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Advanced Molecular and Immunological Diagnostic Methods to Detect SARS-CoV-2 Infection.Microorganisms · 2022Review
- Modeling and Evaluation of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism for Curbing COVID-19 in Wuhan.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Identification of COVID-19 spread mechanisms based on first-wave data, simulation models, and evolutionary algorithms.PloS one · 2022Article
- A Highly Sensitive and Specific SARS-CoV-2 Spike- and Nucleoprotein-Based Fluorescent Multiplex Immunoassay (FMIA) to Measure IgG, IgA, and IgM Class Antibodies.Microbiology spectrum · 2021Article
- A COVID-19 Epidemic Model Predicting the Effectiveness of Vaccination in the US.Infectious disease reports · 2021Article
- Article
- Re-examination of the impact of some non-pharmaceutical interventions and media coverage on the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
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3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundThe COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan started in December 2019 and was under control by the end of March 2020 with a total of 50,006 confirmed cases by the implementation of a series of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including unprecedented lockdown of the city. This study analyzes the complete outbreak data from Wuhan, assesses the impact of these public health interventions, and estimates the asymptomatic, undetected and total cases for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan.
methodsBy taking different stages of the outbreak into account, we developed a time-dependent compartmental model to describe the dynamics of disease transmission and case detection and reporting. Model coefficients were parameterized by using the reported cases and following key events and escalated control strategies. Then the model was used to calibrate the complete outbreak data by using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. Finally we used the model to estimate asymptomatic and undetected cases and approximate the overall antibody prevalence level.
resultsWe found that the transmission rate between Jan 24 and Feb 1, 2020, was twice as large as that before the lockdown on Jan 23 and 67.6% (95% CI [0.584,0.759]) of detectable infections occurred during this period. Based on the reported estimates that around 20% of infections were asymptomatic and their transmission ability was about 70% of symptomatic ones, we estimated that there were about 14,448 asymptomatic and undetected cases (95% CI [12,364,23,254]), which yields an estimate of a total of 64,454 infected cases (95% CI [62,370,73,260]), and the overall antibody prevalence level in the population of Wuhan was 0.745% (95% CI [0.693%,0.814%]) by March 31, 2020.
conclusionsWe conclude that the control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan was achieved via the enforcement of a combination of multiple NPIs: the lockdown on Jan 23, the stay-at-home order on Feb 2, the massive isolation of all symptomatic individuals via newly constructed special shelter hospitals on Feb 6, and the large scale screening process on Feb 18. Our results indicate that the population in Wuhan is far away from establishing herd immunity and provide insights for other affected countries and regions in designing control strategies and planing vaccination programs.
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