Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34034529›Full record

ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2021

A novel approach for predicting risk of vector-borne disease establishment in marginal temperate environments under climate change: West Nile virus in the UK.

David A Ewing, Bethan V Purse, Christina A Cobbold, Steven M White

Open access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
4.9field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.

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  7. Detection of West Nile virus via retrospective mosquito arbovirus surveillance, United Kingdom, 2025.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

David A EwingUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK.
Bethan V PurseSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Christina A CobboldBiomathematics and Statistics Scotland, James Clerk Maxwell Building, The King's Buildings, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Steven M WhiteSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology · GBGlasgow Centre for Population Health · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs), such as dengue, Zika, West Nile virus (WNV) and tick-borne encephalitis, account for substantial human morbidity worldwide and have expanded their range into temperate regions in recent decades. Climate change has been proposed as a likely driver of past and future expansion, however, the complex ecology of host and vector populations and their interactions with each other, environmental variables and land-use changes makes understanding the likely impacts of climate change on VBDs challenging. We present an environmentally driven, stage-structured, host-vector mathematical modelling framework to address this challenge. We apply our framework to predict the risk of WNV outbreaks in current and future UK climates. WNV is a mosquito-borne arbovirus which has expanded its range in mainland Europe in recent years. We predict that, while risks will remain low in the coming two to three decades, the risk of WNV outbreaks in the UK will increase with projected temperature rises and outbreaks appear plausible in the latter half of this century. This risk will increase substantially if increased temperatures lead to increases in the length of the mosquito biting season or if European strains show higher replication at lower temperatures than North American strains.

Indexed as

Vector Borne DiseasesWest Nile FeverWest Nile virusZika VirusZika Virus InfectionAnimalsClimate ChangeEuropeHumansUnited Kingdomclimate changedelay-differential equationsmathematical modelmosquitovector-borne diseasesWest Nile virus

Identifiers

PMID34034529
PMCPMC8150030
OpenAlexW3165093351

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.