Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34032119›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias

Incidence of Mild Cognitive Impairment, Conversion to Probable Dementia, and Mortality.

Yun Zhang, Ginny Natale, Sean Clouston

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Incidence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in two Indigenous Bolivian cohorts.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026
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  9. Incomplete Ascertainment of Mortality in a Nationally Representative Longitudinal Study of Community-Living Older Americans.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Yun ZhangProgram in Public Health, Renaissance School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9837-1365
Ginny NataleDepartment of Family, Population, and Preventive Medicine, Renaissance School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, NY, USA.
Sean CloustonProgram in Public Health, Department of Family, Population, and Preventive Medicine, Renaissance School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6124-0329

Funding

The National Health and Trends StudyU01AG032947 · NIA · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI VICKI A. FREEDMAN, JENNIFER ANN SCHRACK · 2008 to 2026
$169.4M
Evaluation of Multivariate Causal Factors Linking the Flynn Effect to Declining Dementia Trends and Cognitive AgingR01AG067621 · NIA · PACIFIC HEALTH RESEARCH/ EDUCATION INST · PI HOFER, SCOTT M. · 2019 to 2023
$3.6M
Social inequalities and the onset of Alzheimer's pathology: The role of Race/Ethnicity, cognitive reserve, and occupational complexityRF1AG058595 · NIA · STATE UNIVERSITY NEW YORK STONY BROOK · PI CLOUSTON, SEAN · 2019 to 2019
$3.3M
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG067621NIA NIH HHS RF1 AG058595NIA NIH HHS U01 AG032947
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundFew studies have jointly estimated incidence of MCI, conversion to probable dementia, and mortality in a nationally representatie sample.

methodsWe used data from six waves of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (2011-2016). Multivariable-adjusted multi-state survival models (MSMs) were used to model incidence upon accounting for misclassification.

resultsA total of 6,078 eligible NHATS participants were included (average age: 77.49 ± 7.79 years; 58.42% females; 68.99% non-Hispanic white). The incidence of MCI was estimated to be 41.0 [35.5, 47.3]/1,000 person-years (PY). Participants converted to probable dementia at a high rate of 241.3 [189.6, 307.0]/1,000 PY, though a small number also reverted from MCI to cognitively normal. Education was associated with lower incidence of MCI and conversion to probable dementia, but increased mortality in those with MCI. There were also substantial racial and ethnic disparities in the incidence of MCI and dementia.

conclusionsOur results underscore the relatively common incidence of and conversions between MCI and dementia in community-dwelling older Americans and uncover the beneficial impact of education to withstand cognitive impairment before death.

Indexed as

Cognitive DysfunctionDementiaAgedAged, 80 and overAgingDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansIncidenceIndependent LivingMaleNeuropsychological Testscognitioncognitive dysfunctiondementiamultistate modeling

Identifiers

PMID34032119
PMCPMC8715729

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.