Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34031605›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2021

Prediction of future Alzheimer's disease dementia using plasma phospho-tau combined with other accessible measures.

Sebastian Palmqvist, Pontus Tideman, Nicholas Cullen, Henrik Zetterberg, Kaj Blennow, Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, Jeffery L Dage, Erik Stomrud, Shorena Janelidze, Niklas Mattsson-Carlgren and 1 more

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 342 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
342citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

342 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. The future of Alzheimer's disease risk prediction: a systematic review.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2025
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  16. Integration of neuroimaging signatures of aging and Alzheimer's with fluid biomarkers.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026
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282 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Sebastian PalmqvistClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden. sebastian.palmqvist@med.lu.se.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9267-1930
Pontus TidemanClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Nicholas CullenClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Henrik ZetterbergDepartment of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, the Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3930-4354
Kaj BlennowDepartment of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, the Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1890-4193
Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative
Jeffery L DageEli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2192-1699
Erik StomrudClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Shorena JanelidzeClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2869-8378
Niklas Mattsson-CarlgrenClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Oskar HanssonClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden. oskar.hansson@med.lu.se.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8467-7286

Funding

Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative - SupplementU01AG024904 · NIA · NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE RES &EDUC · PI WEINER, MICHAEL W · 2004 to 2015
$121.0M
CIHRNIA NIH HHS U01 AG024904
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A combination of plasma phospho-tau (P-tau) and other accessible biomarkers might provide accurate prediction about the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. We examined this in participants with subjective cognitive decline and mild cognitive impairment from the BioFINDER (n = 340) and Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) (n = 543) studies. Plasma P-tau, plasma Aβ42/Aβ40, plasma neurofilament light, APOE genotype, brief cognitive tests and an AD-specific magnetic resonance imaging measure were examined using progression to AD as outcome. Within 4 years, plasma P-tau217 predicted AD accurately (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.83) in BioFINDER. Combining plasma P-tau217, memory, executive function and APOE produced higher accuracy (AUC = 0.91, P < 0.001). In ADNI, this model had similar AUC (0.90) using plasma P-tau181 instead of P-tau217. The model was implemented online for prediction of the individual probability of progressing to AD. Within 2 and 6 years, similar models had AUCs of 0.90-0.91 in both cohorts. Using cerebrospinal fluid P-tau, Aβ42/Aβ40 and neurofilament light instead of plasma biomarkers did not improve the accuracy significantly. The clinical predictions by memory clinic physicians had significantly lower accuracy (4-year AUC = 0.71). In summary, plasma P-tau, in combination with brief cognitive tests and APOE genotyping, might greatly improve the diagnostic prediction of AD and facilitate recruitment for AD trials.

Indexed as

AgedAged, 80 and overAlzheimer DiseaseAmyloid beta-PeptidesApolipoproteins EBiomarkersCognitive DysfunctionFemaleHumansMagnetic Resonance ImagingMaleMiddle AgedNeuroimagingNeuropsychological TestsPrognosisRisk FactorsAmyloid beta-PeptidesApoE protein, humanApolipoproteins EBiomarkersMAPT protein, humantau Proteins

Identifiers

PMID34031605

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.