ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Europe2021
Impact of tobacco control policies implementation on future lung cancer incidence in Europe: An international, population-based modeling study.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed.
- Projected preventable cancers through full implementation of tobacco control policies in East and South-East Asian countries, 2025-2050: a modeling study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Structured evaluation of gender integration in tobacco control research.Tobacco control · 2026Review
- Geographic inequalities and gender-specific trends in oropharyngeal cancer mortality in Spain.Medicina oral, patologia oral y cirugia bucal · 2026Article
- A One Health Perspective on Cancer: A Narrative Review.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Tobacco control policies on cancer prevention in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 2025-2050: A modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Adapting the MPOWER policy framework for fossil fuels and public health: reflections on content and process.Perspectives in public health · 2025Article
- Evolution of nicotine product use in Ireland 2015-2023, and associations with quit intentions and attempts: an analysis of nationally representative repeated cross-sectional surveys.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
- Prevalence, trends and outcomes from smoking in elective surgical systems: a secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort study across 442 hospitals from 29 countries across Europe.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
- Comparative effectiveness of immunotherapeutic regimens for untreated advanced non-small-cell lung cancer in real-world clinical practice: a Japanese cancer registry cohort study.ESMO real world data and digital oncology · 2025Article
- Using human genetics to understand the epidemiological association between neuroticism and lung cancer.Translational lung cancer research · 2025Article
- Evaluation of Surgical Cases of Lung Cancer Admitted in Shiraz Referral Hospitals, Southern Iran in 2009-2022.Cancer reports (Hoboken, N.J.) · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of laryngeal cancer attributable to smoking, 1990-2021, and projections to 2036: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- The contribution of avoidable mortality to life expectancy differences and lifespan disparities in the European Union: a population-based study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2024Article
- Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.The Lancet. Public health · 2024Article
- The epidemiology of lung cancer in Hungary based on the characteristics of patients diagnosed in 2018.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- [Mortality trends in Germany in an international context].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2024Article
- The spectrum of TP53 mutations in Rwandan patients with gastric cancer.Genes and environment : the official journal of the Japanese Environmental Mutagen Society · 2024Article
- Geographic differences in lung cancer: focus on carcinogens, genetic predisposition, and molecular epidemiology.Therapeutic advances in medical oncology · 2024Review
- A decade of tobacco control efforts: Implications for tobacco smoking prevalence in Eastern Mediterranean countries.PloS one · 2024Article
- Tobacco control policies implementation and future lung cancer incidence in Saudi Arabia. A population-based study.Preventive medicine reports · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDespite recent trends in declining smoking rates, tobacco smoking remains the most preventable cause of cancer in Europe. We aimed to estimate numbers and proportions of future lung cancer cases that could be potentially prevented over a 20-year period if countries in Europe were to achieve a comprehensive implementation of tobacco control policies.
methodsHistorical data from population-based cancer incidence (or mortality) was used to predict sex-specific lung cancer incidence for 30 European countries up to 2037. Hypothetical country-specific smoking prevalence that would be expected if countries would have achieved the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies (defined by the maximum total score of the Tobacco Control Scale, TCS) was estimated by combining national prevalence data on current smoking and data on the status of implementation of key tobacco control policies. Resulting numbers and proportions of potentially preventable lung cancer cases were estimated taking into account latency periods between changes in smoking prevalence and excess cancer risks.
findingsIn Europe, an estimated 1·65 million lung cancer cases (21·2%, 19·8% in men and 23·2% in women) could be prevented over a 20-year period with the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies. Large variation was seen in European regions and countries reflecting the current level of tobacco control, with the largest potential for prevention in Western Europe (24·5%), Southern Europe (23·1%) and Eastern Europe (22·5%), and the lowest but still substantial potential for further prevention in Northern Europe (12·5%). In women, among whom lung cancer incidence is expected to increase, we estimated somewhat larger proportions of preventable lung cancer cases ranging from 9·9 to 33·9% as compared to men (8·6-28·5%). In the final year of study period (2037), these proportions even exceed 50% in women for some countries.
interpretationImproved and expanded implementation of evidence-based tobacco control policies at the most comprehensive level could reduce future lung cancer incidence considerably across Europe.
fundingThe study was funded by the German Cancer Aid ("Deutsche Krebshilfe"), grant number 70112097.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.