Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34026717›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in public health2021

COVID-19: Heterogeneous Excess Mortality and "Burden of Disease" in Germany and Italy and Their States and Regions, January-June 2020.

Peter Morfeld, Barbara Timmermann, J Valérie Groß, Philip Lewis, Pierluigi Cocco, Thomas C Erren

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Peter MorfeldInstitute and Policlinic for Occupational Medicine, Environmental Medicine and Prevention Research, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Barbara TimmermannInstitute and Policlinic for Occupational Medicine, Environmental Medicine and Prevention Research, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
J Valérie GroßInstitute and Policlinic for Occupational Medicine, Environmental Medicine and Prevention Research, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Philip LewisInstitute and Policlinic for Occupational Medicine, Environmental Medicine and Prevention Research, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Pierluigi CoccoDepartment of Medical Sciences and Public Health, Occupational Medicine Unit, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy.
Thomas C ErrenInstitute and Policlinic for Occupational Medicine, Environmental Medicine and Prevention Research, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Total mortality and "burden of disease" in Germany and Italy and their states and regions were explored during the first COVID-19 wave by using publicly available data for 16 German states and 20 Italian regions from January 2016 to June 2020. Based on expectations from 2016 to 2019, simplified Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) for deaths occurring in the first half of 2020 and the effect of changed excess mortality in terms of "burden of disease" were assessed. Moreover, whether two German states and 19 Italian cities appropriately represent the countries within the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network was explored. Significantly elevated SMRs were observed (Germany: week 14-18, Italy: week 11-18) with SMR peaks in week 15 in Germany (1.15, 95%-CI: 1.09-1.21) and in week 13 in Italy (1.79, 95%-CI: 1.75-1.83). Overall, SMRs were 1.00 (95%-CI: 0.97-1.04) in Germany and 1.06 (95%-CI: 1.03-1.10) in Italy. Significant SMR heterogeneity was found within both countries. Age and sex were strong modifiers. Loss of life expectancy was 0.34 days (1.66 days in men) for Germany and 5.3 days (6.3 days in men) for Italy [with upper limits of 3 and 6 weeks among elderly populations (≥65 years) after maximum potential bias adjustments]. Restricted data used within EuroMOMO neither represents mortality in the countries as a whole nor in their states and regions adequately. Mortality analyses with high spatial and temporal resolution are needed to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic's course.

Indexed as

COVID-19PandemicsAgedCitiesGermanyHumansItalyMaleSARS-CoV-2epidemiologyGermanyItalymortality excessSARS-CoV-2/COVID-19SMR

Identifiers

PMID34026717
PMCPMC8137836

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.