ArticleJournal of mathematical biology2021
Control with uncertain data of socially structured compartmental epidemic models.
Article in Journal of mathematical biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Optimizing infectious disease mitigation under dynamic conditions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Optimal algorithms for controlling infectious diseases in real time using noisy infection data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- A Statistical Mechanics Approach to Describe Cell Reorientation Under Stretch.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Kinetic Models for Epidemic Dynamics in the Presence of Opinion Polarization.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Modeling opinion polarization on social media: Application to Covid-19 vaccination hesitancy in Italy.PloS one · 2023Article
- Infectious Disease Spreading Fought by Multiple Vaccines Having a Prescribed Time Effect.Acta biotheoretica · 2022Article
- An epidemic-economic model for COVID-19.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2022Article
- An efficient nonstandard computer method to solve a compartmental epidemiological model for COVID-19 with vaccination and population migration.Computer methods and programs in biomedicine · 2022Article
- From agent-based models to the macroscopic description of fake-news spread: the role of competence in data-driven applications.SN partial differential equations and applications · 2022Article
- Using mobility data in the design of optimal lockdown strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Kinetic models for epidemic dynamics with social heterogeneity.Journal of mathematical biology · 2021Article
- Incorporating Social Determinants of Health into Modelling of COVID-19 and other Infectious Diseases: A Baseline Socio-economic Compartmental Model.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2021Article
- Universal features of epidemic models under social distancing guidelines.Annual reviews in control · 2021Article
- An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic.Journal of mathematics in industry · 2020Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of forced external actions to reduce the impact of the disease. The importance of social structure, such as the age dependence that proved essential in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, must be considered, and in addition, the available data are often incomplete and heterogeneous, so a high degree of uncertainty must be incorporated into the model from the beginning. In this work we address these aspects, through an optimal control formulation of a socially structured epidemic model in presence of uncertain data. After the introduction of the optimal control problem, we formulate an instantaneous approximation of the control that allows us to derive new feedback controlled compartmental models capable of describing the epidemic peak reduction. The need for long-term interventions shows that alternative actions based on the social structure of the system can be as effective as the more expensive global strategy. The timing and intensity of interventions, however, is particularly relevant in the case of uncertain parameters on the actual number of infected people. Simulations related to data from the first wave of the recent COVID-19 outbreak in Italy are presented and discussed.
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