Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34022827›Full record

SynthesisBMC infectious diseases2021

Interferon-gamma release assay levels and risk of progression to active tuberculosis: a systematic review and dose-response meta-regression analysis.

Jorge R Ledesma, Jianing Ma, Peng Zheng, Jennifer M Ross, Theo Vos, Hmwe H Kyu

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Lung Resident T Cells Across the Spectrum of TB Infection and Disease.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
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  8. Persistent Abdominal Pain and Diarrhea After Appendectomy-Crohn's Disease Versus Intestinal Tuberculosis.JGH open : an open access journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2025
    Article
  9. Article
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  11. Article
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  18. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Jorge R LedesmaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
Jianing MaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
Peng ZhengInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
Jennifer M RossDepartment of Global Health, University of Washington, 325 9th Avenue, Box 359931, Seattle, WA, 98104, USA.
Theo VosInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
Hmwe H KyuInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave. NE, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA. hmwekyu@uw.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0449-5691

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIdentifying and treating individuals with high risk of progression from latent tuberculosis infection to active tuberculosis (TB) disease is critical for eliminating the disease. We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-regression analysis to quantify the dose-response relationship between interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) levels and the risk of progression to active TB.

methodsWe searched PubMed and Embase from 1 January 2001 to 10 May 2020 for longitudinal studies that reported the risk of progression from latent to active TB as a function of baseline IGRA values. We used a novel Bayesian meta-regression method to pool effect sizes from included studies and generate a continuous dose-response risk curve. Our modeling framework enabled us to incorporate random effects across studies, and include data with different IGRA ranges across studies. The quality of included studies were assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS).

resultsWe included 34 studies representing 581,956 person-years of follow-up with a total of 788 incident cases of TB in the meta-regression analysis. Higher levels of interferon-gamma were associated with increased risk of progression to active tuberculosis. In the dose-response curve, the risk increased sharply between interferon-gamma levels 0 and 5 IU/ml, after which the risk continued to increase moderately but at a slower pace until reaching about 15 IU/ml where the risk levels off. Compared to 0 IU/ml, the relative risk of progression to active TB among those with interferon-gamma levels of 0.35, 1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 IU/ml were: 1.64 (1.28-2.08), 2.90 (2.02-3.88), 11.38 (6.64-16.38), 19.00 (13.08-26.90), 21.82 (14.65-32.57), and 22.31 (15.43-33.00), respectively. The dose-response relationship remains consistent when limiting the analysis to studies that scored highest in the NOS.

conclusionThe current practice of dichotomizing IGRA test results simplifies the TB infection disease continuum. Evaluating IGRA test results over a continuous scale could enable the identification of individuals at greatest risk of progression to active TB.

Indexed as

Disease ProgressionBayes TheoremHumansInterferon-gammaInterferon-gamma Release TestsLatent TuberculosisLongitudinal StudiesMaleMycobacterium tuberculosisRegression AnalysisRisk FactorsTuberculin TestIFNG protein, humanInterferon-gammaActive tuberculosisDose-response meta-regressionIGRALatent tuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID34022827
PMCPMC8141158

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.