ArticleThe Lancet. Planetary health2021
City-level vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in the USA and future projections: a geographically clustered meta-regression.
Article in The Lancet. Planetary health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mapping the Burden of Ischemic Stroke Attributable to Temperature Variation under Climate Change Scenarios Accounting for Long-Term Adaptation.Environmental health perspectives · 2026Article
- Urban-rural disparities in heatwave effects on under-5 mortality in China, 2009-2019: a nationwide case-crossover study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Integrated impact of climate change on health outcomes and economic stability in PEPFAR-supported African countries.Health affairs scholar · 2026Article
- Quantifying the contributions of climate change and adaptation to mortality from unprecedented extreme heat events.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Escalated heatwave mortality risk in sub-Saharan Africa under recent warming trend.Science advances · 2025Article
- Individual and city-level variations in heat-related road traffic deaths in Latin America.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Individual and city-level variations in heat-related road traffic deaths in Latin America.Nature cities · 2025Article
- Inequality in mortality risk of older adults between rural and urban areas exposure to temperature variations in China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Projections of Heat-Related Mortality in Chinese Cities: The Roles of Climate Change, Urbanization, Socioeconomic Adaptation, and Landscape-Level Strategies.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Article
- Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities.Nature medicine · 2025Article
- Does socioeconomic and environmental burden affect vulnerability to extreme air pollution and heat? A case-crossover study of mortality in California.Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology · 2025Article
- Non-optimal temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity burden by cause, age and sex under climate and population change scenarios: a nationwide modelling study in Japan.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Nocturnal heat exposure and stroke risk.European heart journal · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal distribution and lag effect of extreme temperature exposure on mortality of residents in Jiangsu, China.Heliyon · 2024Article
- The temporal change of heat exposure and adaptation capacity in Chinese adults from 1994 to 2023.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050.Environmental health perspectives · 2023Observational
- Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States.Earth system dynamics : ESD · 2023Article
- The Direct and Indirect Influences of Interrelated Regional-Level Sociodemographic Factors on Heat-Attributable Mortality in Europe: Insights for Adaptation Strategies.Environmental health perspectives · 2023Article
- Human Health and Well-being in a Warming World.The Milbank quarterly · 2023Article
- Trends in Temperature-associated Mortality in São Paulo (Brazil) between 2000 and 2018: an Example of Disparities in Adaptation to Cold and Heat.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundExtreme heat exposure can lead to premature death. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events, resulting in many additional heat-related deaths globally, as well as changing the nature of extreme cold events. At the same time, vulnerability to extreme heat has decreased over time, probably due to a combination of physiological, behavioural, infrastructural, and technological adaptations. We aimed to account for these changes in vulnerability and avoid overstated projections for temperature-related mortality. We used the historical observed decrease in vulnerability to improve future mortality estimates.
methodsWe used historical mortality and temperature data from 208 US cities to quantify how observed changes in vulnerability from 1973 to 2013 affected projections of temperature-related mortality under various climate scenarios. We used geographically structured meta-regression to characterise the relationship between temperature and mortality for these urban populations over the specified time period. We then used the fitted relationships to project mortality under future climate conditions.
findingsBetween Oct 26, 2018, and March 9, 2020, we established that differences in vulnerability to temperature were geographically structured. Vulnerability decreased over time in most areas. US mortalities projected from a 2°C increase in mean temperature decreased by more than 97% when using 2003-13 data compared with 1973-82 data. However, these benefits declined with increasing temperatures, with a 6°C increase showing only an 84% decline in projected mortality based on 2003-13 data.
interpretationEven after accounting for adaptation, the projected effects of climate change on premature mortality constitute a substantial public health risk. Our work suggests large increases in temperature will require additional mitigation to avoid excess mortality from heat events, even in areas with high air conditioning coverage in place.
fundingThe US Environmental Protection Agency and Abt Associates.
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