ArticlePloS one2021
Dynamical SPQEIR model assesses the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 17 citations in OpenAlex.
- Networked SIRS model with Kalman filter state estimation for epidemic monitoring in Europe.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Machine learning insights on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Nigeria.International health · 2025Article
- Four Years Since COVID-19 Day Zero: A Time to Evaluate Past and Future Pandemic Control Policies and Practices in Sub-Saharan Africa?Risk management and healthcare policy · 2024Article
- Model-based assessment of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by wastewater analysis.The Science of the total environment · 2022Article
- Performance of early warning signals for disease re-emergence: A case study on COVID-19 data.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Lack of practical identifiability may hamper reliable predictions in COVID-19 epidemic models.Science advances · 2022Article
- Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden.Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
- Dynamics of epidemic diseases without guaranteed immunity.Journal of mathematics in industry · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate it. However, it is generally difficult to estimate the joint impact of different control strategies. In this paper, we tackle this question with an extended epidemic SEIR model, informed by a socio-political classification of different interventions. First, we inquire the conceptual effect of mitigation parameters on the infection curve. Then, we illustrate the potential of our model to reproduce and explain empirical data from a number of countries, to perform cross-country comparisons. This gives information on the best synergies of interventions to control epidemic outbreaks while minimising impact on socio-economic needs. For instance, our results suggest that, while rapid and strong lockdown is an effective pandemic mitigation measure, a combination of social distancing and early contact tracing can achieve similar mitigation synergistically, while keeping lower isolation rates. This quantitative understanding can support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions, to prepare containment strategies against further outbreaks. This paper also provides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diverse scenarios with our model.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.