ArticlePloS one2021
Birth-cohort estimates of smoking initiation and prevalence in 20th century Australia: Synthesis of data from 33 surveys and 385,810 participants.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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5 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Using Bayesian evidence synthesis to quantify uncertainty in population trends in smoking behaviour.Statistical methods in medical research · 2025Article
- A novel tobacco forecasting model by multiple sociodemographic strata in Australia.International journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Targeted lung cancer screening in the age of immunotherapies and targeted therapies - an economic evaluation for Australia.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Article
- Trends in gastric cancer mortality 1990-2019 in 36 countries worldwide, with predictions to 2025, and incidence, overall and by subtype.Cancer medicine · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The aim of our study was to quantify sex-specific patterns of smoking prevalence and initiation in 10-year birth cohorts from 1910 to 1989 in Australia. We combined individual data of 385,810 participants from 33 cross-sectional surveys conducted between 1962 and 2018. We found that age-specific smoking prevalence varied considerably between men and women within birth cohorts born before 1960. The largest difference was observed in the earliest cohort (1910-1919), with up to 37.7% point greater proportion of current smokers in men than in women. In subsequent cohorts, the proportion decreased among men, but increased among women, until there was no more than 7.4% point difference in the 1960-69 birth cohort. In the 1970-79 and 1980-89 cohorts, smoking among men marginally increased, but the proportion was at most ~11.0% points higher than women. Our analysis of initiation indicated that many women born before the 1930s who smoked commenced smoking after age 25 years (e.g., ~27% born in 1910-19); compared to at most 8% of men in any birth cohort. The earliest birth cohort (1910-1919) had the greatest difference in age at initiation between sexes; 26.6 years in women versus 19.0 in men. In later cohorts, male and female smokers initiated increasingly earlier, converging in the 1960-69 cohort (17.6 and 17.8 years, respectively). While 22.9% of men and 8.4% of women initiated smoking aged < = 15 in the 1910-1919 cohort, in the latest cohort (1980-89) the reverse was true (21.4% and 28.8% for men and women, respectively). Marked differences in smoking prevalence and age at initiation existed between birth cohorts of Australian men and women born before 1960; after this, sex-specific trends in prevalence and initiation were similar. Understanding these patterns may inform the evaluation of tobacco control policies and the targeting of potential interventions for exposed populations such as lung cancer screening.
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