Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34019548›Full record

ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2021

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on rabies reemergence in Latin America: The case of Arequipa, Peru.

Brinkley Raynor, Elvis W Díaz, Julianna Shinnick, Edith Zegarra, Ynes Monroy, Claudia Mena, Micaela De la Puente-León, Michael Z Levy, Ricardo Castillo-Neyra

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
44citing papers in PubMed
6.1field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

44 citing papers in PubMed, 63 citations in OpenAlex.

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  9. Timeliness in canine rabies outbreak report and response.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025
    Article
  10. Cave dogs around major urban areas threaten rabies elimination program.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
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  11. Reemergence of Human Rabies in an Endemic Peruvian Amazon Region.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.

Brinkley RaynorDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine at University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-5386-414X
Elvis W DíazZoonotic Disease Research Lab, One Health Unit, School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú.
Julianna ShinnickDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine at University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
Edith ZegarraGerencia Regional de Salud de Arequipa, Ministerio de Salud, Arequipa, Perú.
Ynes MonroyGerencia Regional de Salud de Arequipa, Ministerio de Salud, Arequipa, Perú.ORCID 0000-0002-5311-4031
Claudia MenaRed de Salud Arequipa Caylloma, Ministerio de Salud, Arequipa, Perú.ORCID 0000-0003-4922-7794
Micaela De la Puente-LeónZoonotic Disease Research Lab, One Health Unit, School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú.ORCID 0000-0001-6668-5442
Michael Z LevyDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine at University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-4661-3764
Ricardo Castillo-NeyraDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine at University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0001-6629-2139
Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia · PEMinisterio de Salud · NIUniversity of Pennsylvania · US

Funding

VMD-PhD Training in Infectious Disease-Related ResearchT32AI070077 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI Michael Lee Atchison · 2008 to 2026
$3.5M
An immune system for the city: a new paradigm for control of urban disease vectorsR01AI146129 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI LEVY, MICHAEL Z, PAZ-SOLDAN, VALERIE ANDREA · 2019 to 2023
$3.3M
Control and Prevention of Zoonotic Epidemics in Cities: A Socio-Spatial ApproachK01AI139284 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI CASTILLO NEYRA, RICARDO · 2019 to 2023
$710k
NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI139284NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI146129NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI070077NIH HHS 1R01AI146129-01
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In Latin America, there has been tremendous progress towards eliminating canine rabies. Major components of rabies elimination programs leading to these successes have been constant and regular surveillance for rabid dogs and uninterrupted yearly mass dog vaccination campaigns. Unfortunately, vital measures to control COVID-19 have had the negative trade-off of jeopardizing these rabies elimination and prevention activities. We aimed to assess the effect of interrupting canine rabies surveillance and mass dog vaccination campaigns on rabies trends. We built a deterministic compartment model of dog rabies dynamics to create a conceptual framework for how different disruptions may affect rabies virus transmission. We parameterized the model for conditions found in Arequipa, Peru, a city with active rabies virus transmission. We examined our results over a range of plausible values for R0 (1.36-2.0). Also, we prospectively evaluated surveillance data during the pandemic to detect temporal changes. Our model suggests that a decrease in canine vaccination coverage as well as decreased surveillance could lead to a sharp rise in canine rabies within months. These results were consistent over all plausible values of R0. Surveillance data from late 2020 and early 2021 confirms that in Arequipa, Peru, rabies cases are on an increasing trajectory. The rising rabies trends in Arequipa, if indicative to the region as whole, suggest that the achievements made in Latin America towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies may be in jeopardy.

Indexed as

PandemicsAnimalsCOVID-19Disease EradicationDog DiseasesDogsHumansLatin AmericaMass VaccinationPeruRabiesRabies VaccinesRabies virusSARS-CoV-2Vaccination CoverageRabies Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID34019548
PMCPMC8174740
OpenAlexW3162632105

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.