ArticleScientific reports2021
COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention portfolio effectiveness and risk communication predominance.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effectiveness of testing, contact tracing and isolation interventions among the general population on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Selected Aspects of Self-Regulation: How People Cope with Danger and Change in the Context of COVID-19 (Research in Poland and Ukraine).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Review
- Robust uncertainty quantification in popular estimators of the instantaneous reproduction number.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions of the COVID-19 pandemic on the trend of seasonal influenza in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Observational
- Risk assessment of infection of COVID-19 contacts based on scenario simulation.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2025Article
- The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the spectrum of neonatal disease in a tertiary hospital in China: A retrospective analysis.Health science reports · 2024Article
- Impact of Covid -19 incidence rate and government-initiated risk communication measures on individual's NPI practices.PloS one · 2024Article
- The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Simulation approach.Saudi pharmaceutical journal : SPJ : the official publication of the Saudi Pharmaceutical Society · 2024Article
- Ethical implications of COVID-19 management-is freedom a desired aim, or a desired means to an end?Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- On the determinants of anti-COVID restriction and anti-vaccine movements: the case of IoApro in Italy.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- A network meta-analysis of risk factors of infection among close contacts of COVID-19.Heliyon · 2023Article
- A comparative study of eight COVID-19 protective measures and their impact on Swiss tourists' travel intentions.Tourism management · 2023Article
- Evaluation of the Global Health Security Index as a predictor of COVID-19 excess mortality standardised for under-reporting and age structure.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- Stress and Stressors: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Students, Faculty and Staff at a Historically Black College/University.Journal of community health · 2023Article
- Utility of the Comprehensive Health and Stringency Indexes in Evaluating Government Responses for Containing the Spread of COVID-19 in India: Ecological Time-Series Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Factors influencing COVID-19 vaccination intention among university students: A cross-sectional study in Malaysia.Biosafety and health · 2023Article
- CIRO: COVID-19 infection risk ontology.PloS one · 2023Article
- Excess mortality and the COVID-19 pandemic: causes of death and social inequalities.BMC public health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including resource allocation, risk communication, social distancing and travel restriction, are mainstream actions to control the spreading of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. Different countries implemented their own combinations of NPIs to prevent local epidemics and healthcare system overloaded. Portfolios, as temporal sets of NPIs have various systemic impacts on preventing cases in populations. Here, we developed a probabilistic modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness of NPI portfolios at the macroscale. We employed a deconvolution method to back-calculate incidence of infections and estimate the effective reproduction number by using the package EpiEstim. We then evaluated the effectiveness of NPIs using ratios of the reproduction numbers and considered them individually and as a portfolio systemically. Based on estimates from Japan, we estimated time delays of symptomatic-to-confirmation and infection-to-confirmation as 7.4 and 11.4 days, respectively. These were used to correct surveillance data of other countries. Considering 50 countries, risk communication and returning to normal life were the most and least effective yielding the aggregated effectiveness of 0.11 and - 0.05 that correspond to a 22.4% and 12.2% reduction and increase in case growth. The latter is quantified by the change in reproduction number before and after intervention implementation. Countries with the optimal NPI portfolio are along an empirical Pareto frontier where mean and variance of effectiveness are maximized and minimized independently of incidence levels. Results indicate that implemented interventions, regardless of NPI portfolios, had distinct incidence reductions and a clear timing effect on infection dynamics measured by sequences of reproduction numbers. Overall, the successful suppression of the epidemic cannot work without the non-linear effect of NPI portfolios whose effectiveness optimality may relate to country-specific socio-environmental factors.
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