ArticleDiabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy2021
Derivation and Validation of a Prediction Model for Predicting the 5-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Non-Obese Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study.
Article in Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 25 citations in OpenAlex.
- Risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with intermediate hyperglycemia: a systematic literature review and external validation study.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2022Pooled it
- A community‑based study of platelet‑to‑white blood cell ratio and new‑onset type 2 diabetes in older adults.BMC endocrine disorders · 2026Article
- The leukocyte glucose index: a novel inflammatory-glucose biomarker for prevalent diabetic retinopathy and its supplementary predictive capacity in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Article
- Performance of diabetes risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Endocrine connections · 2025Article
- Elevated estimated pulse wave velocity and the risk of type 2 diabetes in non-obese young adults: a longitudinal cohort study.BMC endocrine disorders · 2025Article
- Development and validation a nomogram to predict long-term mortality risks of PRISm and mild-to-moderate COPD based on NHANES 2007-2012.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- AIP, fatty liver, and HbA1c as modifiers of the C-index and diabetes risk relationship.Lipids in health and disease · 2025Article
- Association of estimated small dense low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with diabetes mellitus: a large-scale multicenter retrospective cohort study.BMC endocrine disorders · 2025Article
- Novel Model Predicts Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients Complicated With Metabolic Syndrome Using Retrospective Dataset From First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, China.International journal of endocrinology · 2025Article
- Relation of time in range to severity of coronary artery disease in patients with type 2 diabetes: A cross-sectional study.Open medicine (Warsaw, Poland) · 2025Article
- Screening and evaluation of diabetic retinopathyWorld journal of diabetes · 2024Article
- Association of white blood cell count to mean platelet volume ratio with type 2 diabetic peripheral neuropathy in a Chinese population: a cross-sectional study.BMC endocrine disorders · 2024Article
- Development, validation and visualization of a web-based nomogram for predicting risk of new-onset diabetes after percutaneous coronary intervention.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- [Construction of a Predictive Model for Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations Based on the Medical Checkup Data of National Basic Public Health Service].Sichuan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Sichuan University. Medical science edition · 2024Article
- The application of predictive value of diabetes autoantibody profile combined with clinical data and routine laboratory indexes in the classification of diabetes mellitus.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2024Article
- Construction of a 3-year risk prediction model for developing diabetes in patients with pre-diabetes.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2024Article
- Trends and future predictions of chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 2 attributable to dietary risks: insights based on GBD 2021 data.Frontiers in nutrition · 2024Article
- The atherogenic index of plasma is associated with an increased risk of diabetes in non-obese adults: a cohort study.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2024Article
- Lipid Accumulation Product Index Predicts New-Onset Type 2 Diabetes Among Non-Obese Koreans: A 12-Year Longitudinal Study.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2022Article
- Development of nomogram to predict in-hospital death for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage: A retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in neurology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeThe aim of this study was to derivate and validate a nomogram based on independent predictors to better evaluate the 5-year risk of T2D in non-obese adults. PATIENTS AND
methodsThis is a historical cohort study from a collection of databases that included 12,940 non-obese participants without diabetes at baseline. All participants were randomised to a derivation cohort (n = 9651) and a validation cohort (n = 3289). In the derivation cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to determine the optimal risk factors for T2D. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to establish the nomogram of T2D prediction. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were performed by 1000 bootstrap resamplings to evaluate the discrimination ability, calibration, and clinical practicability of the nomogram.
resultsAfter LASSO regression analysis of the derivation cohort, it was found that age, fatty liver, γ-glutamyltranspeptidase, triglycerides, glycosylated hemoglobin A1c and fasting plasma glucose were risk predictors, which were integrated into the nomogram. The C-index of derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.906 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.878-0.934] and 0.837 (95% CI, 0.760-0.914), respectively. The AUC of 5-year T2D risk in the derivation cohort and validation cohort was 0.916 (95% CI, 0.889-0.943) and 0.829 (95% CI, 0.753-0.905), respectively. The calibration curve indicated that the predicted probability of nomogram is in good agreement with the actual probability. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the predicted nomogram was clinically useful.
conclusionOur nomogram can be used as a reasonable, affordable, simple, and widely implemented tool to predict the 5-year risk of T2D in non-obese adults. With this model, early identification of high-risk individuals is helpful to timely intervene and reduce the risk of T2D in non-obese adults.
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