ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2021
Interventions targeting non-symptomatic cases can be important to prevent local outbreaks: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- Identifying the optimal rapid antigen test for screening and determining the end of isolation: A modeling study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Effects of individual variation and seasonal vaccination on disease risks.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Estimating the effect of contact tracing during the early stage of an epidemic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Reducing transmission in multiple settings is required to eliminate the risk of major Ebola outbreaks: a mathematical modelling study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Quantifying infectious disease epidemic risks: A practical approach for seasonal pathogens.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- A modeling study to define guidelines for antigen screening in schools and workplaces to mitigate COVID-19 outbreaks.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Optimal social distancing in epidemic control: cost prioritization, adherence and insights into preparedness principles.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Exact calculation of end-of-outbreak probabilities using contact tracing data.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- A multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission: Application to COVID-19 in the US.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Modelling the impact of repeat asymptomatic testing policies for staff on SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Emergence potential of monkeypox in the Western Pacific Region, July 2022.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- Modeling Incorporating the Severity-Reducing Long-term Immunity: Higher Viral Transmission Paradoxically Reduces Severe COVID-19 During Endemic Transition.Immune network · 2022Article
- Estimating local outbreak risks and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in age-structured populations: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.Frontiers in immunology · 2022Article
- Interventions targeting non-symptomatic cases can be important to prevent local outbreaks: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions.Communications medicine · 2021Article
- Impact of the first superspreading outbreak of COVID-19 related to a nightlife establishment in Andalusia, Spain.Journal of healthcare quality researchObservational
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
During infectious disease epidemics, an important question is whether cases travelling to new locations will trigger local outbreaks. The risk of this occurring depends on the transmissibility of the pathogen, the susceptibility of the host population and, crucially, the effectiveness of surveillance in detecting cases and preventing onward spread. For many pathogens, transmission from pre-symptomatic and/or asymptomatic (together referred to as non-symptomatic) infectious hosts can occur, making effective surveillance challenging. Here, by using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we show how the risk of local outbreaks can be assessed when non-symptomatic transmission can occur. We construct a branching process model that includes non-symptomatic transmission and explore the effects of interventions targeting non-symptomatic or symptomatic hosts when surveillance resources are limited. We consider whether the greatest reductions in local outbreak risks are achieved by increasing surveillance and control targeting non-symptomatic or symptomatic cases, or a combination of both. We find that seeking to increase surveillance of symptomatic hosts alone is typically not the optimal strategy for reducing outbreak risks. Adopting a strategy that combines an enhancement of surveillance of symptomatic cases with efforts to find and isolate non-symptomatic infected hosts leads to the largest reduction in the probability that imported cases will initiate a local outbreak.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.