Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34002089›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2021

Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

David S Khoury, Deborah Cromer, Arnold Reynaldi, Timothy E Schlub, Adam K Wheatley, Jennifer A Juno, Kanta Subbarao, Stephen J Kent, James A Triccas, Miles P Davenport

3 registry-linked trialsOpen access · bronzeAbstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 3 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 2,504 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2,504citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
245.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05205746 phase2completednot on this map

Phase II Study to Evaluate Immunogenicity and Safety in Subjects With Evidence of Prior Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 of a Single Intramuscular or Intranasal Dose of the Live Recombinant Newcastle Disease Virus Based AVX/COVID-12 Vaccine

TypeinterventionalSponsorLaboratorio Avi-Mex, S.A. de C.V.Ran2021 to 2023Enrolled158ConditionsSARS CoV 2 InfectionArmsRecombinant NDV Vectored Vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, Placebo
NCT05668065 phase3completednot on this map

Immunogenicity of Heterologous Versus Homologous Prime Boost Schedule With mRNA and Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccines: a Single-blinded, Randomized, Parallel Group Superiority Trial

TypeinterventionalSponsorInstitut Pasteur de TunisRan2021 to 2022Enrolled199ConditionsCOVID-19ArmsCoronaVac/CoronaVac, CoronaVac/BNT162b2
NCT05710783 phase2 / phase3completednot on this mapstarted 2022, after this paper: background citation

Phase II/III Parallel, Double-blind, Non-inferiority Study With Active Control, to Evaluate the Immunogenicity and Safety of a Booster Immunization Scheme With a Single Intramuscular Dose of the Recombinant Vaccine Against SARS-CoV-2

TypeinterventionalSponsorLaboratorio Avi-Mex, S.A. de C.V.Ran2022 to 2023Enrolled4,065ConditionsSARS-CoV-2 InfectionArmsAVX-COVID/12, ChAdOx-1-S[recombinant]
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2,504 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 4,152 citations in OpenAlex.

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2,444 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

David S Khoury *Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2663-1551
Deborah Cromer *Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5276-5094
Arnold ReynaldiKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5529-5542
Timothy E SchlubKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Adam K WheatleyDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5593-9387
Jennifer A JunoDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9072-1017
Kanta SubbaraoDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Stephen J KentDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8539-4891
James A TriccasSchool of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. jamie.triccas@sydney.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3730-2339
Miles P DavenportKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. m.davenport@unsw.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4751-1831
UNSW Sydney · AUThe University of Melbourne · AUThe University of Sydney · AUAustralian Research Council · AU

Funding

Department of Health, Australian Government (Department of Health) MRF2005544Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) GNT1123673Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) GNT1149990Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) GNT1153493Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) GNT1173027Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) GNT1173528Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) GNT2002073
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Predictive models of immune protection from COVID-19 are urgently needed to identify correlates of protection to assist in the future deployment of vaccines. To address this, we analyzed the relationship between in vitro neutralization levels and the observed protection from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection using data from seven current vaccines and from convalescent cohorts. We estimated the neutralization level for 50% protection against detectable SARS-CoV-2 infection to be 20.2% of the mean convalescent level (95% confidence interval (CI) = 14.4-28.4%). The estimated neutralization level required for 50% protection from severe infection was significantly lower (3% of the mean convalescent level; 95% CI = 0.7-13%, P = 0.0004). Modeling of the decay of the neutralization titer over the first 250 d after immunization predicts that a significant loss in protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection will occur, although protection from severe disease should be largely retained. Neutralization titers against some SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern are reduced compared with the vaccine strain, and our model predicts the relationship between neutralization and efficacy against viral variants. Here, we show that neutralization level is highly predictive of immune protection, and provide an evidence-based model of SARS-CoV-2 immune protection that will assist in developing vaccine strategies to control the future trajectory of the pandemic.

Indexed as

Antibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesHumansLogistic ModelsSARS-CoV-2Severity of Illness IndexAntibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCOVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID34002089
OpenAlexW3163785571

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.