ArticleThe Kobe journal of medical sciences2021
Can Japan Achieve Zero Transmission of HIV? Time Series Analysis Using Bayesian Local Linear Trend Model.
Article in The Kobe journal of medical sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- A case of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection without increase in HIV RNA level: A rare observation during the modern antiretroviral therapy era.Journal of general and family medicine · 2022Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe number of newly diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients in Japan appears to be decreasing. However, whether these new infections cease to occur in the future in Japan, similar to abroad, is unclear. To evaluate the feasibility of this achievement, we conducted a time series analysis using Bayesian local linear trend model to evaluate the possibility of zero new infection of HIV/AIDS in Japan.
methodsWe used quarterly data on HIV/AIDS from the first quarter, 2001 to the second quarter, 2020. Bayesian analyses were conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and a local linear trend model was constructed for number of newly diagnosed HIV infection without AIDS diagnosis, AIDS cases, and their aggregate. Predictions for the following 60 quarters until the second quarter of 2035 were also made for all models.
resultsThe mean aggregate cases of HIV/AIDS patients became 0 by the fourth quarter of 2031 (90% credible interval 0-535). For HIV infections alone, mean cases became 0 by the second quarter of 2030 (90%CrI 0-472). For AIDS alone mean cases were 9 at the second quarter of 2035 (90%CrI 0-231).
conclusionOur local linear trend model suggested that number of HIV/AIDS cases in Japan could decrease to zero by the first quarter of 2031, if the trend of the infections followed the local linear trend model, yet with rather wide credible interval. Achieving zero new transmission of HIV in Japan is a realistic goal but measures to make it faster may be needed.
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