ArticleMilitary Medical Research2021
Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka.
Article in Military Medical Research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Salmonellosis outbreak archive in China: data collection and assembly.Scientific data · 2024Article
- Ionizable drug delivery systems for efficient and selective gene therapy.Military Medical Research · 2023Review
- SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the Military during the Early Phase of the Pandemic-A Systematic Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In response to an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) within a cluster of Navy personnel in Sri Lanka commencing from 22nd April 2020, an aggressive outbreak management program was launched by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health. To predict the possible number of cases within the susceptible population under four social distancing scenarios, the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) was used. With increasing social distancing, the epidemiological curve flattened, and its peak shifted to the right. The observed or actually reported number of cases was above the projected number of cases at the onset; however, subsequently, it fell below all predicted trends. Predictive modelling is a useful tool for the control of outbreaks such as COVID-19 in a closed community.
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