ArticleEconomics of disasters and climate change2021
Assessing the Optimality of a COVID Lockdown in the United States.
Article in Economics of disasters and climate change, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Cost-effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of COVID-19: Systematic review of 85 modelling studies.Journal of global health · 2022Pooled it
- Innovative public strategies in response to COVID-19: A review of practices from China.Health care science · 2024Review
- COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth.Journal of the Japanese and international economies · 2023Article
- The Effect of Strict Lockdown on Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant Transmission in Shanghai.Vaccines · 2022Article
- The impact of COVID-19 on the number of active small primary care businesses by severity of the pandemic: evidence from South Korea.BMC primary care · 2022Article
- Public health implications of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a rapid scoping review.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Are We Better-Off? The Benefits and Costs of Australian COVID-19 Lockdown.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Welfare economics of managing an epidemic: an exposition.Japanese economic review (Oxford, England) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Though COVID vaccines have been available since December 2020, the rate at which they are administered remains slow, and in the meantime the pandemic continues to claim about as many lives every day as the 9/11 tragedy. I estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, 203 thousand additional lives will be lost and the future cost of the pandemic will reach $1.3 trillion, or 6% of GDP. Using a cost-benefit analysis, I assess whether it is optimal for the United States to follow the lead of many European countries and introduce a nation-wide lockdown. I find that a lockdown would be indeed optimal and, depending on the assumptions, it should last between two and four weeks and will generate a net benefit of up to $653 billion.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.