ArticleBMC cancer2021
Predictive nomogram for postoperative pancreatic fistula following pancreaticoduodenectomy: a retrospective study.
Article in BMC cancer, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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11 citing papers in PubMed, 17 citations in OpenAlex.
- The impact of Braun-modified single loop versus isolated Roux-en-y reconstruction on clinical outcomes following pancreaticoduodenectomy.BMC surgery · 2026Article
- Risk stratification of postoperative pancreatic fistula and other complications following pancreatoduodenectomy. How far are we? A scoping review.Langenbeck's archives of surgery · 2025Article
- Association of bioelectrical impedance phase angle and nutritional status in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
- Risk prediction and clinical utility analysis of postoperative pancreatic fistula: a comparative study of multivariable logistic regression and random forest models.Frontiers in surgery · 2025Article
- Optimizing prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: Current status and future perspectives.World journal of gastroenterology · 2024Review
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- Development and validation of a network calculator model for safety and efficacy after pancreaticoduodenectomy in the elderly patients with pancreatic head cancer.Cancer medicine · 2023Article
- Risk factor analysis and prediction of postoperative clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy.BMC surgery · 2023Article
- Incidence and risk factors of postoperative acute pancreatitis after pancreaticoduodenectomy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in surgery · 2023Review
- Drain fluid biomarkers for prediction and diagnosis of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula: A narrative review.World journal of gastrointestinal surgery · 2022Review
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9 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPostoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) represents the most common complication following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Predictive models are needed to select patients with a high risk of POPF. This study was aimed to establish an effective predictive nomogram for POPF following PD.
methodsConsecutive patients who had undergone PD between January 2016 and May 2020 at a single institution were analysed retrospectively. A predictive nomogram was established based on a training cohort, and Lasso regression and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate predictors. The predictive abilities of the predicting model were assessed for internal validation by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plot using bootstrap resampling. The performance of the nomogram was compared with that of the currently used a-FRS model.
resultsA total of 459 patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 302) and a validation cohort (n = 157). No significant difference was observed between the two groups with respect to clinicopathological characteristics. The POPF rate was 16.56%. The risk factors of POPF POPF were albumin difference, drain amylase value on postoperative day 1, pancreas texture, and BMI, which were all selected into a nomogram. Nomogram application revealed good discrimination (AUC = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.81-0.94, P < 0.001) as well as calibration abilities in the validation cohort. The predictive value of the nomogram was better than that of the a-FRS model (AUC: 0.87 vs 0.62, P < 0.001).
conclusionsThis predictive nomogram could be used to evaluate the individual risk of POPF in patients following PD, and albumin difference is a new, accessible predictor of POPF after PD.
trial registrationThis study was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Register ( ChiCTR2000034435 ).
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