ArticleBMJ open2021
Disease and demography: a systems-dynamic cohort-component population model to assess the implications of disease-specific mortality targets.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Accuracy of Budget Impact Projections in Bulgarian Health Technology Assessment: A Five-Year Validation Study (2020-2025).Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Using routine health care data to develop and validate a system dynamics simulation model of frailty trajectories in an ageing population.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2025Article
- Economic and healthcare influences on circulatory diseases in Kazakhstan: a retrospective ecological study.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2024Article
- Exposure of metal toxicity in Alzheimer's disease: An extensive review.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionThe 2015 Sustainable Development Goals include the objective of reducing premature mortality from major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one-third by 2030. Accomplishing this objective has demographic implications with relevance for countries' health systems and costs. However, evidence on the system-wide implications of NCD targets is limited.
methodsWe developed a cohort-component model to estimate demographic change based on user-defined disease-specific mortality trajectories. The model accounts for ageing over 101 annual age cohorts, disaggregated by sex and projects changes in the size and structure of the population. We applied this model to the context of Bangladesh, using the model to simulate demographic outlooks for Bangladesh for 2015-2030 using three mortality scenarios. The 'status quo' scenario entails that the disease-specific mortality profile observed in 2015 applies throughout 2015-2030. The 'trend' scenario adopts age-specific, sex-specific and disease-specific mortality rate trajectories projected by WHO for the region. The 'target' scenario entails a one-third reduction in the mortality rates of cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases between age 30 and 70 by 2030.
resultsThe status quo, trend and target scenarios projected 178.9, 179.7 and 180.2 million population in 2030, respectively. The cumulative number of deaths during 2015-2030 was estimated at 17.4, 16.2 and 15.6 million for each scenario, respectively. During 2015-2030, the target scenario would avert a cumulative 1.73 million and 584 000 all-cause deaths compared with the status quo and trend scenarios, respectively. Male life expectancy was estimated to increase from 71.10 to 73.47 years in the trend scenario and to 74.38 years in the target scenario; female life expectancy was estimated to increase from 73.68 to 75.34 years and 76.39 years in the trend and target scenarios, respectively.
conclusionThe model describes the demographic implications of NCD prevention and control targets,
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.