ArticleEpidemics2021
Assessing the nationwide impact of COVID-19 mitigation policies on the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
Article in Epidemics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed.
- Dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus surveillance in blood donors in Brazil, 2019-2021.Vox sanguinis · 2026Article
- Comparative spatial-temporal analysis of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B.1.1.33 and BQ.1.1 Omicron variant across pandemic phases.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Refining Estimation of the Instantaneous Reproduction Number During Early Pandemic Stages: Addressing Case-Reporting Variability and Serial Interval Uncertainty.American journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks; an application to COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Evaluating social protection mitigation effects on HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis through a mathematical modelling study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A scoping review of the impacts of COVID-19 physical distancing measures on vulnerable population groups.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Were public interventions relevant for containing the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil in 2020?Revista de saude publica · 2023Article
- Ethnic/Racial Disparity in Mortality from COVID-19: Data for the Year 2020 in Brazil.Spatial demography · 2023Article
- Profile of COVID-19 in Brazil-risk factors and socioeconomic vulnerability associated with disease outcome: retrospective analysis of population-based registers.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- Influence of Population Size, the Human Development Index and the Gross Domestic Product on Mortality by COVID-19 in the Southeast Region of Brazil.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Impact of government policies on the COVID-19 pandemic unraveled by mathematical modelling.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Tracking changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a novel outpatient sentinel surveillance system in Chicago, USA.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Genomic epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil.Nature microbiology · 2022Article
- Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 over four epidemic waves in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: A prospective cohort study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2022Article
- A parametrized nonlinear predictive control strategy for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing measures in Brazil.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Genomic epidemiology reveals the impact of national and international restrictions measures on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- Modelling policy combinations of vaccination and transmission suppression of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Inter-Country COVID-19 Contagiousness Variation in Eight African Countries.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
COVID-19 is now identified in almost all countries in the world, with poorer regions being particularly more disadvantaged to efficiently mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. In the absence of efficient therapeutics or large-scale vaccination, control strategies are currently based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, comprising changes in population behavior and governmental interventions, among which the prohibition of mass gatherings, closure of non-essential establishments, quarantine and movement restrictions. In this work we analyzed the effects of 707 governmental interventions published up to May 22, 2020, and population adherence thereof, on the dynamics of COVID-19 cases across all 27 Brazilian states, with emphasis on state capitals and remaining inland cities. A generalized SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model with a time-varying transmission rate (TR), that considers transmission by asymptomatic individuals, is presented. We analyze the effect of both the extent of enforced measures across Brazilian states and population movement on the changes in the TR and effective reproduction number. The social mobility reduction index, a measure of population movement, together with the stringency index, adapted to incorporate the degree of restrictions imposed by governmental regulations, were used in conjunction to quantify and compare the effects of varying degrees of policy strictness across Brazilian states. Our results show that population adherence to social distance recommendations plays an important role for the effectiveness of interventions and represents a major challenge to the control of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.
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