ArticleInternational journal of colorectal disease2021
Prediction of the postoperative 90-day mortality after acute colorectal cancer surgery: development and temporal validation of the ACORCA model.
Article in International journal of colorectal disease, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Estimating postoperative mortality in colorectal surgery- a systematic review of risk prediction models.International journal of colorectal disease · 2023Pooled it
- The preoperative hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet score (HALP) as a prognostic indicator in patients with non-small cell lung cancer.Frontiers in nutrition · 2024Article
- Expression of Autophagic and Inflammatory Markers in Normal Mucosa of Individuals with Colorectal Adenomas: A Cross Sectional Study among Italian Outpatients Undergoing Colonoscopy.International journal of molecular sciences · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
purposeThe aim of this study was to develop and validate a model to predict 90-day mortality after acute colorectal cancer surgery.
methodsThe model was developed in all patients undergoing acute colorectal cancer surgery in 2014-2016 and validated in a patient group operated in 2017 in Denmark. The outcome was 90-day mortality. Tested predictor variables were age, sex, performance status, BMI, smoking, alcohol, education level, cohabitation status, tumour localization and primary surgical procedure. Variables were selected according to the smallest Akaike information criterion. The model was shrunken by bootstrapping. Discrimination was evaluated with a receiver operated characteristic curve, calibration with a calibration slope and the accuracy with a Brier score.
resultsA total of 1450 patients were included for development of the model and 451 patients for validation. The 90-day mortality rate was 19% and 20%, respectively. Age, performance status, alcohol, smoking and primary surgical procedure were the final variables included in the model. Discrimination (AUC = 0.79), calibration (slope = 1.04, intercept = 0.04) and accuracy (brier score = 0.13) were good in the developed model. In the temporal validation, discrimination (AUC = 0.80) and accuracy (brier score = 0.13) were good, and calibration was acceptable (slope = 1.19, intercept = 0.52).
conclusionWe developed prediction model for 90-day mortality after acute colorectal cancer surgery that may be a promising tool for surgeons to identify patients at risk of postoperative mortality.
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