ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2021
Public health impact of delaying second dose of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 covid-19 vaccine: simulation agent based modeling study.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 41 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 77 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Review
- Optimization Modeling for Pandemic Vaccine Supply Chain Management: A Review and Future Research Opportunities.Naval research logistics · 2024Article
- Incorporating social determinants of health into transmission modeling of COVID-19 vaccine in the US: a scoping review.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- COVID-19 vaccines: history of the pandemic's great scientific success and flawed policy implementation.Monash bioethics review · 2024Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- A competency framework on simulation modelling-supported decision-making for Master of Public Health graduates.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2024Review
- Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2023Article
- Understanding the COVID-19 Vaccine Policy Terrain in Ontario Canada: A Policy Analysis of the Actors, Content, Processes, and Context.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Public health · 2023Article
- Determining the Optimal SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine Dosing Interval for Maximum Immunogenicity.Cureus · 2023Article
- Physical activities pre- and post-COVID-19 vaccination and its implementations: A narrative review.SAGE open medicine · 2023Review
- Article
- Evaluation of vaccination strategies for the metropolitan area of Madrid via agent-based simulation.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Modelling optimal vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in a context of Gamma variant predominance in Brazil.Vaccine · 2022Article
- Effectiveness of delayed second dose of AZD1222 vaccine in patients with autoimmune rheumatic disease.Clinical rheumatology · 2022Article
- Article
- Review
- Assessment of the post-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response depending on the epidemiological status, demographic parameters and levels of selected cytokines in medical personnel.Postepy dermatologii i alergologii · 2022Article
- An agent-based model to assess large-scale COVID-19 vaccination campaigns for the Italian territory: The case study of Lombardy region.Computer methods and programs in biomedicine · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
16 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo estimate population health outcomes with delayed second dose versus standard schedule of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination.
designSimulation agent based modeling study.
settingSimulated population based on real world US county.
participantsThe simulation included 100 000 agents, with a representative distribution of demographics and occupations. Networks of contacts were established to simulate potentially infectious interactions though occupation, household, and random interactions.
interventionsSimulation of standard covid-19 vaccination versus delayed second dose vaccination prioritizing the first dose. The simulation runs were replicated 10 times. Sensitivity analyses included first dose vaccine efficacy of 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% after day 12 post-vaccination; vaccination rate of 0.1%, 0.3%, and 1% of population per day; assuming the vaccine prevents only symptoms but not asymptomatic spread (that is, non-sterilizing vaccine); and an alternative vaccination strategy that implements delayed second dose for people under 65 years of age, but not until all those above this age have been vaccinated.
main outcome measuresCumulative covid-19 mortality, cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections, and cumulative hospital admissions due to covid-19 over 180 days.
resultsOver all simulation replications, the median cumulative mortality per 100 000 for standard dosing versus delayed second dose was 226
conclusionsA delayed second dose vaccination strategy, at least for people aged under 65, could result in reduced cumulative mortality under certain conditions.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.