Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33977228›Full record

ArticleJNCI cancer spectrum2021

Prospective Evaluation of the Addition of Polygenic Risk Scores to Breast Cancer Risk Models.

Sherly X Li, Roger L Milne, Tu Nguyen-Dumont, Xiaochuan Wang, Dallas R English, Graham G Giles, Melissa C Southey, Antonis C Antoniou, Andrew Lee, Shuai Li and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JNCI cancer spectrum, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  20. Incorporating Alternative Polygenic Risk Scores into the BOADICEA Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Sherly X LiCancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-8696-8594
Roger L MilneCancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-5764-7268
Tu Nguyen-DumontPrecision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-6217-0182
Xiaochuan WangCancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Dallas R EnglishCancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Graham G GilesCancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Melissa C SoutheyCancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-6313-9005
Antonis C AntoniouCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Andrew LeeCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0677-0252
Shuai LiCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-7840-4051
Ingrid WinshipDepartment of Genomic Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
John L HopperCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Mary Beth TerryDepartment of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, USA.
Robert J MacInnisCancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Funding

Cancer Research UK 20861Cancer Research UK C12292/A20861
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm and the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study breast cancer risk models are used to provide advice on screening intervals and chemoprevention. We evaluated the performance of these models, which now incorporate polygenic risk scores (PRSs), using a prospective cohort study. Methods: We used a case-cohort design, involving women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study aged 50-75 years when surveyed in 2003-2007, of whom 408 had a first primary breast cancer diagnosed within 10 years (cases), and 2783 were from the subcohort. Ten-year risks were calculated based on lifestyle factors, family history data, and a 313-variant PRS. Discrimination was assessed using a C-statistic compared with 0.50 and calibration using the ratio of expected to observed number of cases (E/O). Results: When the PRS was added to models with lifestyle factors and family history, the C-statistic (95% confidence interval [CI]) increased from 0.57 (0.54 to 0.60) to 0.62 (0.60 to 0.65) using IBIS and from 0.56 (0.53 to 0.59) to 0.62 (0.59 to 0.64) using BOADICEA. IBIS underpredicted risk (E/O = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.48 to 0.80) for women in the lowest risk category (<1.7%) and overpredicted risk (E/O = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.18 to 1.67) in the highest risk category (≥5%), using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for calibration in quantiles of risk and a 2-sided Conclusions: Although the inclusion of a 313 genetic variant PRS doubles discriminatory accuracy (relative to reference 0.50), models with and without this PRS have relatively modest discrimination and might require recalibration before their clinical and wider use are promoted.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAdultAgedAlgorithmsBreast NeoplasmsConfidence IntervalsFamily HealthFemaleGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenetic VariationHumansLife StyleMedical History TakingMiddle AgedPolymorphism, Single NucleotidePredictive Value of Tests

Identifiers

PMID33977228
PMCPMC8099999

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.