ArticleScientific reports2021
Detecting infected asymptomatic cases in a stochastic model for spread of Covid-19: the case of Argentina.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A modelling study to explore the effects of regional socio-economics on the spreading of epidemics.Journal of computational social science · 2024Article
- A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Modelling the interplay of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United Kingdom.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model.IEEE transactions on automation science and engineering : a publication of the IEEE Robotics and Automation Society · 2022Article
- Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Article
- Spatiotemporal tracing of pandemic spread from infection data.Scientific reports · 2021Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
We have studied the dynamic evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Argentina. The marked heterogeneity in population density and the very extensive geography of the country becomes a challenge itself. Standard compartment models fail when they are implemented in the Argentina case. We extended a previous successful model to describe the geographical spread of the AH1N1 influenza epidemic of 2009 in two essential ways: we added a stochastic local mobility mechanism, and we introduced a new compartment in order to take into account the isolation of infected asymptomatic detected people. Two fundamental parameters drive the dynamics: the time elapsed between contagious and isolation of infected individuals ([Formula: see text]) and the ratio of people isolated over the total infected ones (p). The evolution is more sensitive to the [Formula: see text]parameter. The model not only reproduces the real data but also predicts the second wave before the former vanishes. This effect is intrinsic of extensive countries with heterogeneous population density and interconnection.The model presented has proven to be a reliable predictor of the effects of public policies as, for instance, the unavoidable vaccination campaigns starting at present in the world an particularly in Argentina.
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