Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33976183›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil.

Anderson Fernandes Brito, Lais Ceschini Machado, Rachel J Oidtman, Márcio Junio Lima Siconelli, Quan Minh Tran, Joseph R Fauver, Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira Carvalho, Filipe Zimmer Dezordi, Mylena Ribeiro Pereira, Luiza Antunes de Castro-Jorge and 14 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 54 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
54citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

54 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Variations in annual dengue intensities are explained by temperature anomalies.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Trends in dengue incidence and lethality: interrupted time series analysis, Brazil, 2001-2022.Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil · 2025
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Climate, demography, immunology, and virology combine to drive two decades of dengue virus dynamics in Cambodia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  19. Envelope Protein-Targeting Zika Virus Entry Inhibitors.International journal of molecular sciences · 2024
    Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors.

Anderson Fernandes Brito *Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5785-7222
Lais Ceschini Machado *Department of Entomology, Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz, Recife, PE, Brazil.
Rachel J Oidtman *Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1773-9533
Márcio Junio Lima Siconelli *Internal Medicine Department, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-5340-0962
Quan Minh TranDepartment of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3337-161X
Joseph R FauverDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8099-2991
Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira CarvalhoDepartment of Entomology, Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz, Recife, PE, Brazil.
Filipe Zimmer DezordiDepartment of Entomology, Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz, Recife, PE, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-3259-3456
Mylena Ribeiro PereiraDepartment of Virology and Experimental Therapy, Aggeu Magalhaes Institute, Fiocruz, Recife, PE, Brazil.
Luiza Antunes de Castro-JorgeInternal Medicine Department, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.
Elaine Cristina Manini MintoMunicipal Health Secretary from Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.
Luzia Márcia Romanholi PassosMunicipal Health Secretary from Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.
Chaney C KalinichDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Mary E PetroneDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3663-7535
Emma AllenDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Guido Camargo EspañaDepartment of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Angkana T HuangDepartment of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9857-3506
Derek A T CummingsDepartment of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Guy BaeleKU Leuven Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory of Evolutionary and Computational Virology, Leuven, Belgium.
Rafael Freitas Oliveira FrancaDepartment of Virology and Experimental Therapy, Aggeu Magalhaes Institute, Fiocruz, Recife, PE, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-1846-6007
Benedito Antônio Lopes da FonsecaInternal Medicine Department, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.
T Alex PerkinsDepartment of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7518-4014
Gabriel Luz WallauDepartment of Entomology, Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz, Recife, PE, Brazil. gabriel.wallau@cpqam.fiocruz.br.ORCID 0000-0002-1419-5713
Nathan D GrubaughDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA. nathan.grubaugh@yale.edu.ORCID 0000-0003-2031-1933

Funding

Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (U Component)UL1TR001863 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John H. Krystal, LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO · 2016 to 2026
$102.9M
NRSA Training CoreTL1TR001864 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI CANTLEY, LLOYD G, EDELMAN, E. JENNIFER · 2016 to 2025
$9.9M
Short-Term Reserch Training: Students in Health SchoolsT35HL007649 · NHLBI · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI Sarwat I Chaudhry, Erica L Herzog · 1987 to 2026
$5.7M
NCATS NIH HHS TL1 TR001864NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001863NHLBI NIH HHS T35 HL007649
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017-2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017-2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018-2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5-10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAntibodies, ViralBrazilChildChild, PreschoolDengueDengue VirusDisease SusceptibilityEpidemicsEpidemiological MonitoringFemaleGenome, ViralHumansAntibodies, Viral

Identifiers

PMID33976183
PMCPMC8113494

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.