ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2021
A simple criterion to design optimal non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating epidemic outbreaks.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- Quantifying optimal resource allocation strategies for controlling epidemics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Reframing Optimal Control Problems for Infectious Disease Management in Low-Income Countries.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Decentralized governance may lead to higher infection levels and sub-optimal releases of quarantines amid the COVID-19 pandemic.PloS one · 2022Article
- Control in Probability for SDE Models of Growth Population.Applied mathematics and optimization · 2022Article
- Feedback control of social distancing for COVID-19 via elementary formulae.IFAC-PapersOnLine · 2022Article
- Assessment of event-triggered policies of nonpharmaceutical interventions based on epidemiological indicators.Journal of mathematical biology · 2021Article
- A COVID-19 Epidemic Model Predicting the Effectiveness of Vaccination in the US.Infectious disease reports · 2021Article
- Potentials of constrained sliding mode control as an intervention guide to manage COVID19 spread.Biomedical signal processing and control · 2021Article
- How best can finite-time social distancing reduce epidemic final size?Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
- Optimal Immunity Control and Final Size Minimization by Social Distancing for the SIR Epidemic Model.Journal of optimization theory and applications · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
For mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, much emphasis is made on implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to keep the reproduction number below one. However, using that objective ignores that some of these interventions, like bans of public events or lockdowns, must be transitory and as short as possible because of their significant economic and societal costs. Here, we derive a simple and mathematically rigorous criterion for designing optimal transitory non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating epidemic outbreaks. We find that reducing the reproduction number below one is sufficient but not necessary. Instead, our criterion prescribes the required reduction in the reproduction number according to the desired maximum of disease prevalence and the maximum decrease of disease transmission that the interventions can achieve. We study the implications of our theoretical results for designing non-pharmaceutical interventions in 16 cities and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we estimate the minimal reduction of each region's contact rate necessary to control the epidemic optimally. Our results contribute to establishing a rigorous methodology to design optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention policies for mitigating epidemic outbreaks.
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