ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
59 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 293 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change.Nature communications · 2024Pooled it
- A synthesis of recorded fine-scale threats to imperiled species in the United States.iScience · 2026Article
- Assessing responses of reef island seabirds to environmental and anthropogenic drivers.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026Article
- Paleorecords inform the limits of Indo-Pacific coral reef survival under accelerating sea-level rise.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Sediment burial reduces coral larval settlement, recruit survivorship, and inhibits the recovery of coral populations.Communications biology · 2026Article
- Aligning observation to action: Integrated monitoring for tropical seascape conservation and restoration.iScience · 2026Review
- Marine protected areas marginally offset anthropogenic declines in tropical reef fish contributions to nature and people.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Ecosystem-Centered Robot Design: Toward Ecoresorbable Sustainability Robots (ESRs).Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2026Review
- Article
- Article
- A Pacific carbonate budgets approach reveals overall net positive production on O'ahu, Hawai'i.PloS one · 2026Article
- Genotype and symbiont composition rather than environment influence susceptibility to stony coral tissue loss disease in coral restoration broodstock.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Coral cover and species responses to heat exposure vary across contemporary Western Atlantic reefs.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Article
- Caribbean coral reefs are threatened by rising seas.Nature · 2025Article
- A long-term perspective to the effects of the 2023 marine heat wave on stony corals in the Caribbean.Biology letters · 2025Article
- Ocean acidification and nitrate enrichment can mitigate negative effects of soft coral (Xenia) competition on hard coral (Stylophora pistillata) endosymbionts.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Emerging skeletal growth responses of Siderastrea siderea corals to multidecadal anthropogenic impacts in Martinique, Caribbean Sea.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Declining coral calcification to enhance twenty-first-century ocean carbon uptake by gigatonnes.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Anthropogenic climate change will likely outpace coral range expansion.Science advances · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
22 authors at 11 institutions in 7 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world's coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.