ArticleInfection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases2021
Novel approach for Monte Carlo simulation of the new COVID-19 spread dynamics.
Article in Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mako robotic-assisted glenoid preparation in reverse shoulder arthroplasty: a tail-risk reduction perspective compared with manual and patient-specific guide techniques.Journal of shoulder and elbow arthroplasty · 2026Article
- Review
- COVID-19 modeling based on real geographic and population data.Turkish journal of medical sciences · 2023Article
- Monte Carlo simulation of COVID-19 pandemic using Planck's probability distribution.Bio Systems · 2022Article
- Airborne transmission of COVID-19 virus in enclosed spaces: An overview of research methods.Indoor air · 2022Review
- The effect of weekend curfews on epidemics: a Monte Carlo simulation.Turkish journal of biology = Turk biyoloji dergisi · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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Abstract
A Monte Carlo simulation in a novel approach is used for studying the problem of the outbreak and spread dynamics of the new COVID-19 pandemic in this work. In particular, our goal was to generate epidemiological data based on natural mechanism of transmission of this disease assuming random interactions of a large-finite number of individuals in very short distance ranges. In the simulation we also take into account the stochastic character of the individuals in a finite population and given densities of people. On the other hand, we include in the simulation the appropriate statistical distributions for the parameters characterizing this disease. An important outcome of our work, besides the generated epidemic curves, is the methodology of determining the effective reproductive number during the main part of the daily new cases of the epidemic. Since this quantity constitutes a fundamental parameter of the SIR-based epidemic models, we also studied how it is affected by small variations of the incubation time and the crucial distance distributions, and furthermore, by the degree of quarantine measures. In addition, we compare our qualitative results with those of selected real epidemiological data.
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