Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33964965›Full record

ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2021

Epidemiology and evolution of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2012-2020.

An-Ran Zhang, Wen-Qiang Shi, Kun Liu, Xin-Lou Li, Ming-Jin Liu, Wen-Hui Zhang, Guo-Ping Zhao, Jin-Jin Chen, Xiao-Ai Zhang, Dong Miao and 4 more

Erratum issuedOpen access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 36 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
36citing papers in PubMed
3.6field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

36 citing papers in PubMed, 62 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. MERS-COV in the Middle East, a one health concept approach.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025
    Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Variable DPP4 expression in multiciliated cells of the human nasal epithelium as a determinant for MERS-CoV tropism.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  10. Article
  11. The Use of Next-Generation Sequencing in Personalized Medicine.Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2025
    Review
  12. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 8 institutions in 3 countries.

An-Ran ZhangDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, People's Republic of China.
Wen-Qiang ShiState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, People's Republic of China.
Kun LiuDepartment of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, People's Republic of China.
Xin-Lou LiDepartment of Medical Research, Key Laboratory of Environmental Sense Organ Stress and Health of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, PLA Stragetic Support Force Characteristic Medical Center, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Ming-Jin LiuDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Wen-Hui ZhangState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, People's Republic of China.
Guo-Ping ZhaoLogistics College of Chinese People's Armed Police Forces, Tianjin, People's Republic of China.
Jin-Jin ChenState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, People's Republic of China.
Xiao-Ai ZhangState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, People's Republic of China.
Dong MiaoState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, People's Republic of China.
Wei MaDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, People's Republic of China. weima@sdu.edu.cn.
Wei LiuState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, People's Republic of China. lwbime@163.com.
Yang YangDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. yangyang@ufl.edu.
Li-Qun FangState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, People's Republic of China. fang_lq@163.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4981-1483
Institute of Microbiology · CNInstitute of Microbiology · BYShandong University · CNAir Force Medical University · CNLogistics University of People's Armed Police Force · CNMinistry of Ecology and Environment · CNUniversity of Florida · USUniversity of Florida Health · US

Funding

Design and Analysis of Vaccine Trials for Emerging Infectious Disease ThreatsR01AI139761 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI DEAN, NATALIE EXNER · 2018 to 2022
$3.6M
Regression, Phylogenetics, and Study Design in Infectious Disease EpidemiologyR01AI116770 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI KENAH, EBEN · 2016 to 2020
$1.8M
Mathematical and Statistical Methods for the Control of Global Infectious Disease ThreatsR56AI148284 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI HALLORAN, M ELIZABETH, LONGINI, IRA M · 2020 to 2020
$802k
China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention 2017ZX10303401China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention 2018ZX10101003China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention 2018ZX10201001China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention 2018ZX10713002National Natural Science Foundation of China 81825019NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI116770NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI139761NIAID NIH HHS R56 AI148284
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe ongoing transmission of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and its expansion to other regions are raising concerns of a potential pandemic. An in-depth analysis about both population and molecular epidemiology of this pathogen is needed.

methodsMERS cases reported globally as of June 2020 were collected mainly from World Health Organization official reports, supplemented by other reliable sources. Determinants for case fatality and spatial diffusion of MERS were assessed with Logistic regressions and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses were performed to examine the evolution and migration history of MERS-CoV.

resultsA total of 2562 confirmed MERS cases with 150 case clusters were reported with a case fatality rate of 32.7% (95% CI: 30.9‒34.6%). Saudi Arabia accounted for 83.6% of the cases. Age of ≥ 65 years old, underlying conditions and ≥ 5 days delay in diagnosis were independent risk factors for death. However, a history of animal contact was associated with a higher risk (adjusted OR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.10-7.98) among female cases < 65 years but with a lower risk (adjusted OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.18-0.51) among male cases ≥ 65 years old. Diffusion of the disease was fastest from its origin in Saudi Arabia to the east, and was primarily driven by the transportation network. The most recent sub-clade C5.1 (since 2013) was associated with non-synonymous mutations and a higher mortality rate. Phylogeographic analyses pointed to Riyadh of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates as the hubs for both local and international spread of MERS-CoV.

conclusionsMERS-CoV remains primarily locally transmitted in the Middle East, with opportunistic exportation to other continents and a potential of causing transmission clusters of human cases. Animal contact is associated with a higher risk of death, but the association differs by age and sex. Transportation network is the leading driver for the spatial diffusion of the disease. These findings how this pathogen spread are helpful for targeting public health surveillance and interventions to control endemics and to prevent a potential pandemic.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAnimalsCoronavirus InfectionsEvolution, MolecularFemaleHumansLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle AgedMiddle East Respiratory Syndrome CoronavirusMolecular EpidemiologyMortalityPhylogenySaudi ArabiaSurvival AnalysisCase fatality rateMERS-CoVMiddle East respiratory syndromePhylogenyPhylogeographic dynamicSpatial diffusion

Identifiers

PMID33964965
PMCPMC8105704
OpenAlexW3163260019

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.