ArticleStatistics in medicine2021
Nowcasting COVID-19 incidence indicators during the Italian first outbreak.
Article in Statistics in medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Monitoring the West Nile virus outbreaks in Italy using open access data.Scientific data · 2023Article
- Explicit modeling of antibody levels for infectious disease simulations in the context of SARS-CoV-2.iScience · 2023Article
- Learning from the past: A short term forecast method for the COVID-19 incidence curve.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Short-term forecasts of Monkeypox cases in multiple countries: keep calm and don't panic.Journal of medical virology · 2023Article
- Two years of COVID-19 pandemic: The Italian experience of Statgroup-19.Environmetrics · 2022Article
- Social Health and Psychological Safety of Students Involved in Online Education during the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Tracking the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying coefficient state-space model.Statistics in medicine · 2022Article
- Article
- Spatio-temporal modelling of COVID-19 incident cases using Richards' curve: An application to the Italian regions.Spatial statistics · 2022Article
- Endemic-epidemic models to understand COVID-19 spatio-temporal evolution.Spatial statistics · 2022Article
- A spatio-temporal model based on discrete latent variables for the analysis of COVID-19 incidence.Spatial statistics · 2022Article
- Covid-19 in Italy: Modelling, communications, and collaborations.Significance (Oxford, England) · 2022Article
- Estimating COVID-19-induced excess mortality in Lombardy, Italy.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2022Article
- A COVINDEX based on a GAM beta regression model with an application to the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.Statistical methods & applications · 2022Article
- Unreliable predictions about COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations make people worry: The case of Italy.Journal of medical virology · 2022Article
- Nowcasting COVID-19 incidence indicators during the Italian first outbreak.Statistics in medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. Accurate short-term predictions, including the potential effect of exogenous or external variables are provided. This ensures to accurately predict important characteristics of the epidemic (e.g., peak time and height), allowing for a better allocation of health resources over time. Parameter estimation is carried out in a maximum likelihood framework. All computational details required to reproduce the approach and replicate the results are provided.
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