Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33954775›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2021

Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination.

Sarah M Bartsch, Patrick T Wedlock, Kelly J O'Shea, Sarah N Cox, Ulrich Strych, Jennifer B Nuzzo, Marie C Ferguson, Maria Elena Bottazzi, Sheryl S Siegmund, Peter J Hotez and 1 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates and Vaccine Hesitancy among Black People in Canada.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
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  16. Review
  17. Proposing a New Conceptual Syndemic Framework for COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy: A Narrative Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Sarah M BartschPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA.
Patrick T WedlockPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA.
Kelly J O'SheaPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA.
Sarah N CoxPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA.
Ulrich StrychNational School of Tropical Medicine and Departments of Pediatrics and Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.
Jennifer B NuzzoJohns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Marie C FergusonPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA.
Maria Elena BottazziNational School of Tropical Medicine and Departments of Pediatrics and Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.
Sheryl S SiegmundPublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA.
Peter J HotezNational School of Tropical Medicine and Departments of Pediatrics and Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.
Bruce Y LeePublic Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA.

Funding

Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst (RHEA) Modeling the Environment (MODE): SARS-CoV-2R01GM127512 · NIGMS · GRADUATE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH POLICY · PI LEE, BRUCE Y · 2020 to 2023
$2.1M
MOdeling Nursing homes to Affect Response to COVID-19 (MONARC)R01HS028165 · AHRQ · GRADUATE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH POLICY · PI LEE, BRUCE Y · 2021 to 2022
$993k
AHRQ HHS R01 HS028165City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy 1R01HS028165-01)Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study R01GM127512NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM127512
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWith multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines available, understanding the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of increasing coverage levels and expediting vaccination is important.

methodsWe developed a computational model (transmission and age-stratified clinical and economics outcome model) representing the United States population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread (February 2020-December 2022), and vaccination to determine the impact of increasing coverage and expediting time to achieve coverage.

resultsWhen achieving a given vaccination coverage in 270 days (70% vaccine efficacy), every 1% increase in coverage can avert an average of 876 800 (217 000-2 398 000) cases, varying with the number of people already vaccinated. For example, each 1% increase between 40% and 50% coverage can prevent 1.5 million cases, 56 240 hospitalizations, and 6660 deaths; gain 77 590 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and save $602.8 million in direct medical costs and $1.3 billion in productivity losses. Expediting to 180 days could save an additional 5.8 million cases, 215 790 hospitalizations, 26 370 deaths, 206 520 QALYs, $3.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $4.3 billion in productivity losses.

conclusionsOur study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy and increasing vaccination coverage and how this value may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before the fall/winter.

Indexed as

Cost-Benefit AnalysisCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesHumansModels, EconomicSARS-CoV-2United StatesVaccinationCOVID-19 VaccinescoronaviruscoverageCOVID-19ratevaccination

Identifiers

PMID33954775
PMCPMC8136017

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.