ArticleWellcome open research2020
Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across the USA.
Article in Wellcome open research, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers.
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Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed.
- Five Fristonian Formulae.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Estimating the value of face coverings during the COVID-19 epidemic: a dynamic causal modelling study.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- Dynamic causal models in infectious disease epidemiology-an assessment of their predictive validity based on the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK 2020 to 2024.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- From pixels to planning: scale-free active inference.Frontiers in network physiology · 2025Article
- Article
- Linking fast and slow: The case for generative models.Network neuroscience (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2024Review
- A follow up report validating long term predictions of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK using a dynamic causal model.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- A new causal centrality measure reveals the prominent role of subcortical structures in the causal architecture of the extended default mode network.Brain structure & function · 2023Article
- Article
- Comparison of the epidemiological features of COVID-19 patients in the first and second waves: A study from South India.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2023Article
- Multiple waves of COVID-19: a pathway model approach.Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- Social distancing causally impacts the spread of SARS-CoV-2: a U.S. nationwide event study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Clinical-epidemiologic variation in patients treated in the first and second wave of COVID-19 in Lambayeque, Peru: A cluster analysis.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 and its mitigations.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- What Is the Impact of Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics on the Pre-delta COVID-19 Epidemic Size in the United States?Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic Declaration on New Oncology Trial Commencements: An Interrupted Time Series with Segmented Regression Analysis.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Race, ethnicity and mortality in the United States during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment.Discover social science and health · 2022Article
- A 12-month projection to September 2022 of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK using a dynamic causal model.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Identifying factors associated with COVID-19 related deaths during the first wave of the pandemic in Europe.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Using a Dynamic Causal Model to validate previous predictions and offer a 12-month forecast of the long-term effects of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several instantiations of this (epidemic) model to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity-and the exchange of people between regions-and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.