ArticlePsychological medicine2023
Predicting prognosis for adults with depression using individual symptom data: a comparison of modelling approaches.
Article in Psychological medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Socioeconomic Indicators of Treatment Prognosis for Adults With Depression: A Systematic Review and Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis.JAMA psychiatry · 2022Pooled it
- A network-based analysis anticipates time to recovery from major depression revealing a plasticity by context interplay.Translational psychiatry · 2025Trial
- Personalized Prediction of Response to Smartphone-Delivered Meditation Training: Randomized Controlled Trial.Journal of medical Internet research · 2022Trial
- The importance of transdiagnostic symptom level assessment to understanding prognosis for depressed adults: analysis of data from six randomised control trials.BMC medicine · 2021Trial
- Methodological guidance on clinical prediction models in mental health research.Psychological medicine · 2026Review
- Predictors of depression outcomes among university students following brief smartphone-based interventions.Npj mental health research · 2026Article
- Who's at risk for emergent depression years later? Predictive modeling in a nine-year longitudinal cohort.BMC psychiatry · 2026Article
- Machine Learning Model for Response to Internet-Delivered CBT vs Antidepressant Medication.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Prediction of individual patient outcomes to psychotherapy vs medication for major depression.Npj mental health research · 2025Article
- A record-linkage study of post-stroke primary care psychological therapy effectiveness in England.Nature. Mental health · 2025Article
- Predicting the outcome of psychotherapy for chronic depression by person-specific symptom networks.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2024Article
- Development of a model to predict antidepressant treatment response for depression among Veterans.Psychological medicine · 2023Article
- A service evaluation of phased- and stepped-care psychological support for health and social care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic.BJPsych open · 2023Article
- Psychological therapies for depression and cardiovascular risk: evidence from national healthcare records in England.European heart journal · 2023Article
- Symptom-specific effects of counselling for depression compared to cognitive-behavioural therapy.BMJ mental health · 2023Article
- The development and internal evaluation of a predictive model to identify for whom Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT) offers superior relapse prevention for recurrent depression versus maintenance antidepressant medication.Clinical psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science · 2023Article
- Prediction of Chinese clients' satisfaction with psychotherapy by machine learning.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2023Article
- Stage models for major depression: Cognitive behavior therapy, mechanistic treatment targets, and the prevention of stage transition.Clinical psychology review · 2022Review
- Article
- The promise of machine learning in predicting treatment outcomes in psychiatry.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
18 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThis study aimed to develop, validate and compare the performance of models predicting post-treatment outcomes for depressed adults based on pre-treatment data.
methodsIndividual patient data from all six eligible randomised controlled trials were used to develop (
resultsModels 1-7 all outperformed the null model and model 8. Model performance was very similar across models 1-6, meaning that differential weights applied to the baseline sum scores had little impact.
conclusionsAny of the modelling techniques (models 1-7) could be used to inform prognostic predictions for depressed adults with differences in the proportions of patients reaching remission based on the predicted severity of depressive symptoms post-treatment. However, the majority of variance in prognosis remained unexplained. It may be necessary to include a broader range of biopsychosocial variables to better adjudicate between competing models, and to derive models with greater clinical utility for treatment-seeking adults with depression.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.