ArticleVaccine2021
Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis.
Article in Vaccine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
48 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 114 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Bayesian uncertainty quantification to identify population level vaccine hesitancy behaviours.PloS one · 2026Article
- Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Review
- Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in Thailand: Averted Deaths and Severe Infections Across Age Groups.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Article
- Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Examining the Influence of Imbalanced Social Contact Matrices in Epidemic Models.American journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Article
- Covid19Vaxplorer: A free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 vaccine allocation comparison tool.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- How enlightened self-interest guided global vaccine sharing benefits all: A modeling study.Journal of global health · 2023Article
- COVID-19 vaccination strategies in settings with limited rollout capacity: a mathematical modelling case study in Sierra Leone.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Evaluation of vaccine rollout strategies for emerging infectious diseases: A model-based approach including protection attitudes.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Covid19Vaxplorer: a free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Comparison Tool.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Long-term vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: A modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2023Article
- Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.Science advances · 2023Article
- Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
20 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The worldwide endeavour to develop safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines has been extraordinary, and vaccination is now underway in many countries. However, the doses available in 2021 are likely to be limited. We extend a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different country settings to evaluate the public health impact of potential vaccines using WHO-developed target product profiles. We identify optimal vaccine allocation strategies within- and between-countries to maximise averted deaths under constraints on dose supply. We find that the health impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination depends on the cumulative population-level infection incidence when vaccination begins, the duration of natural immunity, the trajectory of the epidemic prior to vaccination, and the level of healthcare available to effectively treat those with disease. Within a country we find that for a limited supply (doses for < 20% of the population) the optimal strategy is to target the elderly. However, with a larger supply, if vaccination can occur while other interventions are maintained, the optimal strategy switches to targeting key transmitters to indirectly protect the vulnerable. As supply increases, vaccines that reduce or block infection have a greater impact than those that prevent disease alone due to the indirect protection provided to high-risk groups. Given a 2 billion global dose supply in 2021, we find that a strategy in which doses are allocated to countries proportional to population size is close to optimal in averting deaths and aligns with the ethical principles agreed in pandemic preparedness planning.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.