Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33933229›Full record

ArticleValue in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research2021

Disease Burden Attributable to the First Wave of COVID-19 in China and the Effect of Timing on the Cost-Effectiveness of Movement Restriction Policies.

Jidi Zhao, Huajie Jin, Xun Li, Jianguo Jia, Chao Zhang, Huijuan Zhao, Wuren Ma, Zhuozhu Wang, Yi He, Jimmy Lee and 5 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
39citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
4.9field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

39 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 63 citations in OpenAlex.

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  7. Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Policy Measures: A Systematic Review.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2021
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  8. Economic evaluation of programs against COVID-19: A systematic review.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors at 9 institutions in 4 countries.

Jidi ZhaoDepartment of Public Administration, College of Economics and Management, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.
Huajie JinKing's Health Economics, Health Service and Population Research Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience at King's College London, London, UK.
Xun LiDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Jianguo JiaDevelopment Institute, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.
Chao ZhangDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Huijuan ZhaoDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Wuren MaDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Zhuozhu WangZhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Yi HeCurtin University of Technology, (WA) Australia, Bentley WA, Australia.
Jimmy LeeUniversity of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Donglan ZhangDepartment of Health Policy and Management, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
Bo YinHuashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Weiwei ZhengDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. Electronic address: weiweizheng@fudan.edu.cn.
Haiyin WangHealth Technology Assessment Research Department, Shanghai Health Development Research Centre, Shanghai, China. Electronic address: why0522@126.com.
Mark PenningtonKing's Health Economics, Health Service and Population Research Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience at King's College London, London, UK.
Fudan University · CNKing's College London · GBCurtin University · AUEast China Normal University · CNShanghai University of Medicine and Health Sciences · CNTongji University · CNUniversity of California, Los Angeles · USUniversity of Georgia · USZhejiang University · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesMovement restriction policies (MRPs) are effective in preventing/delaying COVID-19 transmission but are associated with high societal cost. This study aims to estimate the health burden of the first wave of COVID-19 in China and the cost-effectiveness of early versus late implementation of MRPs to inform preparation for future waves.

methodsThe SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) modeling framework was adapted to simulate the health and cost outcomes of initiating MRPs at different times: rapid implementation (January 23, the real-world scenario), delayed by 1 week, delayed by 2 weeks, and delayed by 4 weeks. The end point was set as the day when newly confirmed cases reached zero. Two costing perspectives were adopted: healthcare and societal. Input data were obtained from official statistics and published literature. The primary outcomes were disability-adjusted life-years, cost, and net monetary benefit. Costs were reported in both Chinese renminbi (RMB) and US dollars (USD) at 2019 values.

resultsThe first wave of COVID-19 in China resulted in 38 348 disability adjusted life-years lost (95% CI 19 417-64 130) and 2639 billion RMB losses (95% CI 1347-4688). The rapid implementation strategy dominated all other delayed strategies. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 70 892 RMB (the national annual GDP per capita) per disability-adjusted life-year saved, the probability for the rapid implementation to be the optimal strategy was 96%.

conclusionsEarly implementation of MRPs in response to COVID-19 reduced both the health burden and societal cost and thus should be used for future waves of COVID-19.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessPhysical DistancingTime FactorsChinaCost-Benefit AnalysisCOVID-19HumansPublic Healthcost-effectiveness analysisCOVID-19DALYdisease burdenmovement restriction policiestiming

Identifiers

PMID33933229
PMCPMC7897405
OpenAlexW3089872047

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.