ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021
Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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23 citing papers in PubMed, 49 citations in OpenAlex.
- Characterizing the impact of incorporating spatially aggregated human mobility data into infectious disease models.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- How host mobility formulations shape estimates of pathogen dispersal and epidemic risk in non endemic regions.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Mobility-informed metapopulation models predict the spatio-temporal spread of respiratory epidemics across scales.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Networked SIRS model with Kalman filter state estimation for epidemic monitoring in Europe.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Inferring epidemiological parameters under an infectious phylogeography model with visitor dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Identifying malaria elimination strategies in the presence of human movement in Bangladesh.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Multi-region infectious disease prediction modeling based on spatio-temporal graph neural network and the dynamic model.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Optimizing the detection of emerging infections using mobility-based spatial sampling.International journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation : ITC journal · 2024Article
- Article
- Vector-borne disease models with Lagrangian approach.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Network Profile: Improving Response to Malaria in the Amazon through Identification of Inter-Community Networks and Human Mobility in Border Regions of Ecuador, Peru, and Brazil.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Travel distance, frequency of return, and the spread of disease.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Call detail record aggregation methodology impacts infectious disease models informed by human mobility.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Risk averse reproduction numbers improve resurgence detection.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- The transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics: Its aims, assumptions and limitations.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Host movement, transmission hot spots, and vector-borne disease dynamics on spatial networks.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- An algebraic framework for structured epidemic modelling.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19: Comparison of the inhomogeneous SEPIR model and data from South Carolina.PloS one · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Newly available datasets present exciting opportunities to investigate how human population movement contributes to the spread of infectious diseases across large geographical distances. It is now possible to construct realistic models of infectious disease dynamics for the purposes of understanding global-scale epidemics. Nevertheless, a remaining unanswered question is how best to leverage the new data to parameterize models of movement, and whether one's choice of movement model impacts modeled disease outcomes. We adapt three well-studied models of infectious disease dynamics, the susceptible-infected-recovered model, the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, and the Ross-Macdonald model, to incorporate either of two candidate movement models. We describe the effect that the choice of movement model has on each disease model's results, finding that in all cases, there are parameter regimes where choosing one movement model instead of another has a profound impact on epidemiological outcomes. We further demonstrate the importance of choosing an appropriate movement model using the applied case of malaria transmission and importation on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, finding that one model produces intelligible predictions of
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