ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2021
Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Assessing Sub-Saharan Africa's readiness to address the impact of climate change and health: A scoping review.PloS one · 2025Article
- Viral metagenomic analysis of fecal samples fromFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Article
- Are we ready for the next anthrax outbreak? Lessons from a simulation exercise in a rural-based district in Uganda.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Suitability of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) in the Black Sea basin through the scope of distribution modelling.PloS one · 2024Article
- Drivers and potential distribution of anthrax occurrence and incidence at national and sub-county levels across Kenya from 2006 to 2020 using INLA.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- The potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis suitability across Uganda using INLA.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Seasonality and Ecological Suitability Modelling for Anthrax (Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km
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