Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33919237›Full record

ArticleCancers2021

Machine Learning for Prediction of Survival Outcomes with Immune-Checkpoint Inhibitors in Urothelial Cancer.

Ahmad Y Abuhelwa, Ganessan Kichenadasse, Ross A McKinnon, Andrew Rowland, Ashley M Hopkins, Michael J Sorich

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancers, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
3.3field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 25 citations in OpenAlex.

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  13. Existing trends and applications of artificial intelligence in urothelial cancer A scoping review.Canadian Urological Association journal = Journal de l'Association des urologues du Canada · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Ahmad Y AbuhelwaCollege of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide 5000, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-4182-065X
Ganessan KichenadasseCollege of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide 5000, Australia.
Ross A McKinnonCollege of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide 5000, Australia.
Andrew RowlandCollege of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide 5000, Australia.
Ashley M HopkinsCollege of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide 5000, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-7652-4378
Michael J SorichCollege of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide 5000, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-1999-866X
Flinders University · AU

Funding

Beat Cancer Research Fellowships from Cancer Council South Australia 0000Postdoctoral Fellowship from the National Breast Cancer 00000
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) may enhance the efficiency of developing accurate prediction models for survival, which is critical in informing disease prognosis and care planning. This study aimed to develop an ML prediction model for survival outcomes in patients with urothelial cancer-initiating atezolizumab and to compare model performances when built using an expert-selected (curated) versus an all-in list (uncurated) of variables. Gradient-boosted machine (GBM), random forest, Cox-boosted, and penalised, generalised linear models (GLM) were evaluated for predicting overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) outcomes. C-statistic (c) was utilised to evaluate model performance. The atezolizumab cohort in IMvigor210 was used for model training, and IMvigor211 was used for external model validation. The curated list consisted of 23 pretreatment factors, while the all-in list consisted of 75. Using the best-performing model, patients were stratified into risk tertiles. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate survival probabilities. On external validation, the curated list GBM model provided slightly higher OS discrimination (c = 0.71) than that of the random forest (c = 0.70), CoxBoost (c = 0.70), and GLM (c = 0.69) models. All models were equivalent in predicting PFS (c = 0.62). Expansion to the uncurated list was associated with worse OS discrimination (GBM c = 0.70; random forest c = 0.69; CoxBoost c = 0.69, and GLM c = 0.69). In the atezolizumab IMvigor211 cohort, the curated list GBM model discriminated 1-year OS probabilities for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups at 66%, 40%, and 12%, respectively. The ML model discriminated urothelial-cancer patients with distinctly different survival risks, with the GBM applied to a curated list attaining the highest performance. Expansion to an all-in approach may harm model performance.

Indexed as

gradient boostingimmune checkpoint inhibitorsmachine learningrandom forestsurvival outcomes

Identifiers

PMID33919237
PMCPMC8122430
OpenAlexW3156989699

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.