A Bayesian Approach to Predict Blast-Induced Damage of High Rock Slope Using Vibration and Sonic Data.

The blast-induced damage of a high rock slope is directly related to construction safety and the operation performance of the slope. Approaches currently used to measure and predict the blast-induced damage are time-consuming and costly. A Bayesian approach was proposed to predict the blast-induced damage of high rock slopes using vibration and sonic data. The relationship between the blast-induced damage and the natural frequency of the rock mass was firstly developed. Based on the developed relationship, specific procedures of the Bayesian approach were then illustrated. Finally, the proposed approach was used to predict the blast-induced damage of the rock slope at the Baihetan Hydropower Station. The results showed that the damage depth representing the blast-induced damage is proportional to the change in the natural frequency. The first step of the approach is establishing a predictive model by undertaking Bayesian linear regression, and the second step is predicting the damage depth for the next bench blasting by inputting the change rate in the natural frequency into the predictive model. Probabilities of predicted results being below corresponding observations are all above 0.85. The approach can make the best of observations and includes uncertainty in predicted results.